Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1022 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch probability: 60%]840
ACUS11 KWNS 272142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272142
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-272345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Areas affected...Southern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 272142Z - 272345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered to address
convection developing to the west of WW 334 into southern and
southwest Alabama.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, scattered thunderstorms have
developed along a residual outflow boundary across south-central to
southwest AL with bubbling cumulus noted in GOES visible imagery
further west into southeast MS. This convection is developing just
to the west of WW 334, but should mature in a similar
thermodynamic/kinematic environment characterized by roughly 3000
J/kg MLCAPE and 35-45 knots of effective bulk wind shear. Storm
motions and deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the boundary
should favor upscale growth into clusters with time (with an
increasing wind threat), but a large hail threat should manifest in
the short term (next 1-2 hours).
..Moore/Smith.. 05/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32668651 32698575 32498544 31998540 31508557 31188587
30918639 30818747 30818811 30858852 30908879 30988898
31158908 31448901 31668859 31968807 32388734 32668651
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1022 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch probability: 60%]---------------
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