JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 2:25 PM EST756
FXUS63 KJKL 251925
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
225 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild conditions are expected today, but a series of cold fronts
will then result in an overall downturn in temperatures on
average through the week.
- The first cold front will bring rain later today through tonight.
- More rain is forecast Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
Day,possibly mixing with or changing to snow Thursday night
before exiting the area Friday morning.
- Another system may cross the area this weekend and bring the
possibility of light snow between late Saturday afternoon and
Sunday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 138 PM EST MON NOV 25 2024
Low-level downslope winds have led to partial clearing immediately
northwest of Pine Mountain over the last few hours. This has
allowed temperatures to climb solidly into the middle 60s in that
area while most other locations are only in the upper 50s to lower
60s. That clearing is already starting to fill in as winds are
veering more southwesterly. Outside of that clearing, expect
mostly cloudy to overcast skies and the small chance of a shower
or sprinkle through the remainder of the afternoon with
temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 60s for most
locations.
UPDATE Issued at 1025 AM EST MON NOV 25 2024
The nocturnal inversion has been slow to mix out in the narrower
valleys (e.g. 43F at Jackson 14 ESE Mesonet vs. 58F at Jackson 14
SE Kentucky Mesonet stations), but forecast is generally on track
otherwise. Radar does show a few isolated weak returns, thus
added a chance of sprinkles to the forecast for the next several
hours.
UPDATE Issued at 722 AM EST MON NOV 25 2024
The forecast is on track, so no updates are needed to the text
forecasts. Have just sent an update to the grids to NDFD which
mainly uses the latest observations as initialization of the
gridded forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM EST MON NOV 25 2024
An active zonal pattern continues through the short-term (through
Tuesday afternoon), with good model agreement that an upper trough
will push a cold front across the region tonight, with surface high
pressure building in from the west Tuesday behind the front.
PoPs gradually increase from the west, peaking late this evening
into the early overnight, before steadily lowering to near zero by
sunrise Tuesday morning. The quick motion of the cold front within
the active westerly jet stream will limit WPC QPF to between 0.1"
and 0.25" across the area, with an approximately 25 to 45 percent
chance across the forecast area of QPF exceeding 0.25", with a 5 to
10 percent probability of exceeding 0.50".
Temperatures will become quite mild into the mid-60s today with
increasing warm advection ahead of the cold front, even despite
mostly cloudy conditions. Mild conditions continue into the evening
but cold advection behind the front and partial clearing will allow
for lows to reach the upper 30s to near 40s in the west toward dawn
Tuesday. Despite cold advection weakening through the day, the
arrival of a drier air mass and lowering low-level partial
thicknesses will result in highs only in the upper 40s north to
lower to mid 50s south Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EST MON NOV 25 2024
There is good agreement that this period begins with high pressure
to the east and return flow taking place across eastern Kentucky.
This will allow much of the area to climb into the mid to upper 50s
for high temperatures Wednesday afternoon and spoiler alert that
will be the last chance we see that for a while. There continues to
be divergence on exactly how progressive this next system is for
Wednesday night into Thursday night. The NBM deterministic solution
is favoring the more progressive ECMWF and EPS solutions and given
it has been the most in line with strong agreement among the
members. In recent runs there has been a few more of the other
ensemble systems gravitating toward this solution as well. This
really comes down to a strong signal for a coupled upper level jet
solution that will help deepen a surface low across the Ohio Valley.
Therefore, thought the near 100 percent chances of rain Wednesday
night were warranted.
This higher amplitude mid-level trough will lead to
a cold air advection pattern across the Ohio Valley by Thursday
night. This will eventually change over any lingering precipitation
into rain and/or snow moving into Friday. Overall the trend has been
less on any accumulations and therefore overall not seeing much in
the way of impacts. Then by Friday night, expect a cold pattern to
settle into the Ohio Valley, as surface high pressure noses east.
Most locations are seeing a 90 percent or greater chance of
overnight lows below 25 degrees. That said, some locations will be
in the teens, especially in the valleys if we can decouple ahead of
the next system.
Another fast moving wave drops southward across the Ohio Valley
Saturday night into Sunday. This wave is fast moving and has overall
lighter QPF showing up with it. There is also continued to be some
disagreement in the exact placement of this and is leading to some
uncertainty. The NBM probabilities are only showing around a 30-40
percent chance of seeing measurable snow, so this is not expected to
be very impactful at this time. The big news will be the cold
airmass that will continue to settle into the Ohio Valley through
the weekend into early next week. There will be several locations
that could remain at or below freezing particularly starting
Saturday night and lingering into Monday. That said, there is a good
shot of overnight lows in the teens as well particularly Sunday
night into Monday morning. This colder pattern is supported further
into next week based on NBM trends and teleconnections.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST MON NOV 25 2024
Widespread MVFR ceilings were noted across eastern Kentucky at TAF
issuance with exception of some partial downslope clearing
immediately downwind of Pine Mountain. Any partial sun will yield
to overcast skies later this afternoon as a cold front approaches
from the northwest with numerous to widespread showers. The
arrival timing of the lowest ceilings from northwest to southeast
is 1 to 7z. The ending time of the more widespread rainfall is
from 4z in northern Fleming County to 8z along the Virginia-
Kentucky border, roughly coincident with the frontal passage. Low
ceilings will linger behind the frontal passage well into the day
on Tuesday at many locations. Winds will veer from southwesterly
at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon to northwest behind the frontal
passage. A few gusts of 20 to 25 kts cannot be ruled out at/near
the time of the frontal passage.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 2:25 PM EST---------------
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