ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 9:22 AM EST561
FXUS61 KILN 241422
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
922 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area today offering dry
weather. Showers will occur ahead of a cold front that will
move through late Monday into Monday night. High pressure will
build in behind the front with the next chance of precipitation
coming Wednesday night into Thanksgiving as a low passes south
of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low clouds are eroding from southwest to northeast and that will
continue through the day. Meanwhile, shield of high clouds
passing over the region will thin out later in the day as well.
Forecast temperatures look reasonable.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge to slide east across the area tonight with flow
backing southwesterly ahead of a trof developing into the
Plains. Surface low develops ahead of the progressive mid level
trof and tracks thru the Great Lakes Monday/Monday night. Models
in good agreement with a southward trailing cold front pushing
thru the area Monday night. The pressure gradient will
increase tonight as the cold front starts to approach. Clouds
will increase overnight as moisture increases ahead of this next
system. Low temperatures to range from the mid 30s where clouds
arrive later to the mid 40s west.
Rain to overspread the area Monday becoming widespread by
afternoon. On the warm side of the system - highs to range from
the mid 50s northwest to 60 southeas.t
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface low pressure will be moving through the Great Lakes States
to start the period Monday evening into the overnight while an
associated cold front shifts east through the Ohio Valley. Rain with
this system will begin to taper off late as cool high pressure
builds in Tuesday into Wednesday.
A lower latitude disturbance moving from the southern Plains into
the Kentucky and Tennessee Valleys will bring more precipitation
late Wednesday and Thursday. The best lift will likely be focused
across our southern counties where the precipitation type should be
mostly rain... though can't rule out some light snow mixing in
further north in the weaker forcing where there is less warm air.
Looking at the ensembles, there is still much disagreement in the
eventual path of this Wednesday night/Thursday surface low.
Interestingly, the control member of the ECMWF maintains a far
northern solution, with the low moving along the Ohio River with
accumulating snow north of Interstate 70. However, many of the rest
of the EPS members are further south... leading to the ensemble mean
offering only light snow across our northern counties. The GEFS low
tracks are much further south with little to no snow accumulation in
our CWA.
The longwave pattern will begin to change behind this system late
week. A trough will dig across the eastern United States while
ridging builds out West. It appears some shortwave energy will dive
southeast through the Great Lakes on Friday. This will produce a
chance of light snow before cold high pressure begins to build in to
start next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moisture trapped below an inversion was resulting in low level
clouds. MVFR stratocumulus was observed across much of the
region.
As low level flow becomes southwesterly clouds will slowly
improve from the southwest to northeast across the TAF sites
early this morning thru early afternoon. VFR conditions will
then prevail tonight. Moisture increases ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west with mid level ceilings late tonight
and rain with MVFR conditions during the day Monday.
Low level will be possible across the southern TAF sites between
06Z and 12Z as a weakening low level jet moves into the area.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are likely Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will be
possible Monday afternoon and evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities will be possible again Wednesday night into
Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 9:22 AM EST---------------
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