LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 7:21 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...496
FXUS63 KLMK 292321
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
721 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and below normal to normal temperatures expected
through Friday night.
* Rain and storm chances return for the weekend and continue into
next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on a steady
increase into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024
High pressure stretching from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes to
the Southeast will bring us dry weather and light winds tonight and
tomorrow. We've had a good day of drying today with little to no
precipitation, partial sunshine, and gusty northwest winds. Dew
point depressions tonight are expected to remain just wide enough,
along with a light north breeze, to prevent widespread dense fog.
Also, model guidance does not show a strong preference for fog.
However, it does still appear that there will be some sheltered
river valley fog for a few hours around sunrise. Lows will be around
50 (mid 50s in urban Louisville), with the usual cold spots dipping
into the 40s. There's a 40% chance of rural locations from southern
Indiana to the Kentucky Blue Grass region slipping into the mid 40s.
Lows at the climate sites should be about 15 degrees warmer than the
records for May 30.
Thursday looks like another very nice day with partly cloudy skies,
a light northeast breeze, afternoon highs in the 70s, and afternoon
relative humidity values dropping to around 40-45%.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024
Dry weather will continue Thursday night through Friday night as
surface high pressure slides from the Great Lakes to the Potomac
Valley beneath an upper shortwave ridge. Temperatures will be
seasonable with lows generally in the 50s and highs in the 70s under
partly cloudy skies.
For the remainder of the Long Term a summertime pattern will
establish itself right on time as June begins, with the main jet
energy aloft remaining well to our north along the Canadian border
and weaker quasi-zonal flow over much of the United States. At the
surface the Gulf will be open and provide the region with sufficient
moisture to support showers and thunderstorms when ripples in the
flow pass through. The result of this will be rain chances in each
period of the forecast from Saturday on, but with the showery nature
of the precipitation there will be breaks between rounds of
convection. The best chances of severe storms will be over the
Plains where instability will be the greatest, though some of that
instability may begin to spread eastward by Tuesday and especially
Wednesday as the upper pattern begins to transition into a ridge
west/trough east scenario.
With the summerlike pattern comes summerlike temperatures as highs
rise into the 80s each day Monday through Wednesday with afternoon
dew points from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024
Band of cu/stratocu will continue to push southward across the
region this evening. A few showers will be possible at KSDF/KLEX
through about 30/01-02Z. High pressure will then build into the
region tonight and bring clearing skies. Still think we'll see a
little river valley fog, but the terminals look to remain fog free.
VFR conditions are expected on Thursday with light north to
northeast winds.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 7:21 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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