BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 18, 12:08 PM EST209
FXUS61 KBOX 181708
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1208 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue into
Wednesday. A developing low pressure system will likely deliver
much needed, widespread meaningful rainfall Wednesday night and
Thursday. Showers will linger Thursday night and Friday with
potential for some accumulating snow over the highest
elevations. Gradually drying out next weekend and blustery.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM Update...
* Plenty of sunshine develops with highs upper 50s - middle 60s
A shortwave crossing the region at mid-morning brought a few
brief sprinkles earlier this morning. Most of these have already
departed...but may see a brief sprinkle across southeast MA for
the next hour or so.
Otherwise...bulk of the clouds have already pushed to the I-95
corridor at mid morning and will continue to quickly depart.
Plenty of sunshine will quickly overspread the region over the
next 1-2 hours. Given the mild start...high temps should recover
into the upper 50s across the high terrain to mainly the lower
to middle 60s elsewhere. These temps generally 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Bufkit soundings indicate
northwest wind gusts of 20-25 mph developing later today...but a
very nice day for second half of November across the region!
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Monday night surface high pressure and mid-level ridging sets up to
the west and while the ridge deamplifies throughout Tuesday, should
have strong enough surface high pressure to allow for mostly clear
skies. Despite the clear skies overnight, not expecting strong
radiational cooling because of stronger gusts. Morning lows are in
the upper 30s and low 40s. Will rebound to the middle and upper 50s
by early afternoon under sunshine. Gusts diminish Tuesday to 15 and
20 mph. With minimum RH values between the upper 30s and low 50s
(away from Cape Cod) we will coordinate messaging for Tuesday with
the state fire weather partners.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points..
* Dry with slightly above normal temps Wed
* Much needed widespread, meaningful rain late Wed night into Thu.
Showers lingering Thu night into Fri with potential for some
accumulating snow over the highest elevations in northern MA
* Still the risk of showers Sat, but gradually drying out through
the weekend with gusty winds
Tuesday night and Wednesday...
Quiet weather with high pres building into the region. Chilly night
Tue night with decent radiational cooling, then nice temp recovery
on Wed with highs reaching mid-upper 50s.
Wednesday night through Friday...
Pretty dynamic system will be impacting the region as anomalous
upper low dives into the Ohio Valley before moving into New Eng.
Strong upper level dynamics acting on PWATs around 1 inch will
result in a period of widespread rainfall late Wed night into Thu.
EPS and CMC ensembles showing high probs (80-100%) probs of at least
0.50 inch QPF with GEFS having somewhat lower probs, while 1"+ probs
are low to moderate (highest in upslope areas in the east slopes of
the Berkshires and Worcester Hills). Confidence is fairly high in
0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall for SNE, with potential for higher
amounts in the higher terrain.
It appears the precip will become more showery Thu night and Fri as
the surface low lifts to the north with low level flow becoming SW,
but the upper low will be moving overhead so potential for some
heavier convective showers and additional rainfall. The other
forecast concern for Thu night and Fri is potential for accumulating
snow over the highest elevations in MA, especially the Berkshires as
heights fall with the approach of the upper low. The track and
intensification of the mid level and surface low will play a big
role in the extent of snowfall, and this will not be resolved for at
least a few days. Low level temps are marginal so snowfall will be
highly elevation dependent but some accums are certainly possible.
The deterministic GFS snowfall continues to fall well outside of the
90th percentile of its ensemble distribution, so it is a clear
outlier.
Saturday and Sunday....
Improving conditions as the upper low gradually lifts northward into
the Maritimes. Saturday will be the more unsettled day as the upper
low and cold pool will be nearby. It will be gradually drying out
Sat but the risk of showers will continue, then it looks mainly dry
with NW flow next Sunday. Blustery and cool conditions next weekend
with below normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This afternoon & tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds will gust to between 20 and 25 knots at times.
Strongest of those wind gusts will be across the interior this
afternoon, but shift towards the coastal plain later tonight.
Tuesday...High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds of 5 to 15 knots with some 20 to 25 knot wind
gusts at times into mid afternoon.
Tuesday night...High Confidence.
VFR. Winds becoming Calm/Light with a continued NW direction.
KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
RA likely.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
* Small Craft Advisory for all waters except Narraganset Bay and
Boston Harbor today and tonight, but could be extended into
part of Tuesday.
Seas between 2 and 4 ft today, increasing NW winds behind a
front will then bring wind gusts around 25 kts late Monday and
Monday night with seas increasing to 4-7 ft on the outer
waters.
Tuesday seas are diminishing and area between 3-5 ft with gusts
less than 25 knots.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain
likely.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
* Special Weather Statement for 'Elevated Fire Weather Concerns'
across southern New England today.
While there are some improvement, minimum RH values are still on
the lower side, between 35 and 50%, plus gust up to 25 mph are
from the northwest today.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
* Coastal Flood Statement for eastern MA coast; including Cape
Cod and Islands for Monday afternoon's high tide.
Astronomical tides have peaked just under 12' MLLW and are slowly on
the decline. Still, there will be minor coastal flooding, which is
best described as sporadic and nuisance flooding, as the surge with
Monday morning's high tide is close to 1 ft. A coastal flood
statement is in effect for east coastal MA for the afternoon high
tide.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...Frank/Dooley
MARINE...KJC/Dooley
FIRE WEATHER...KJC/Dooley
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 18, 12:08 PM EST----------------
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