ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 21, 5:01 AM EST497
FXUS61 KILN 211001
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
501 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will migrate from the Great Lakes through the
region through Friday before moving off to the east coast this
weekend. Multiple disturbances rotating around this low will bring
periods of snow showers mixed at times with rain showers, gusty winds,
and much cooler temperatures. Dry conditions return for the weekend
as high pressure builds into the region with precipitation chances
returning on Monday. Weekend temperatures return to seasonable
normals.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep mid level low centered over Lower Michigan to track across
northern Ohio today and into PA tonight. A disturbance to
rotate around this low thru the area this morning. As a result
snow showers moving across Central Indiana will track east
across the area this morning, with the possibility of some
banded heavier areas of snow. These snow showers will be
scattered, but areas under heavier snow showers or bands could
have temporary reductions to visibilities. Model solutions have
generally trended slightly north with the best coverage of snow
showers looking to occur along and just south of the I-70
corridor. Road temperatures are starting out warm so the
reduced visibility looks to be the main impact with this initial
snow this morning. Some lighter snow showers may continue into
the early afternoon.
A second mid level disturbance and associated surface low to
rotate around the 5H low thru Indiana/southwest Ohio this
evening and into KY overnight. In response to this feature,
a steadier area of snow will move into the area late in the
afternoon and into this evening. Model solutions have trended a
little west with the best coverage of snow across southeast
Indiana, Southwest Ohio and Northern Kentucky - where 1 to 2
inches of snow are possible prior to tapering off overnight.
Most of the snow will accumulate on grassy/elevated surfaces but
given that Metro model shows pavement temperatures beginning to
drop into the mid 30s after sunset, some impacts on roads will
be possible. With it being the seasons first snowfall - have
issued a winter weather advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM.
Snowfall moves southeast out of the region overnight.
Cooler temperatures only reach highs today from the mid 30s
northwest to 40 over the southeast. Overnight lows fall to the
mid 20s to around 30.
West winds to gust up to 30 mph today and 25 mph overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Deep mid/upper level low to move off to the east coast with a
an impulse rotating around that system dropping south across
the region on Friday. This will result in more showers Friday
which starts as a mix of rain and snow showers before changing
over to all rain as low level temperatures warm up.
Temperatures will still be below normal on Friday, with highs
in the lower and middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Precipitation will be exiting to the east to start the long term
period Friday night. In the wake of the departing upper low, heights
will rise and surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley
from the southwest Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures will be
above normal.
The next mid-level disturbance and an associated surface low will
move into the Upper Midwest states late Sunday into Monday. This
will pull deeper moisture into the region and cause rain on Monday.
Our period of mild temperatures will end behind the system Tuesday
into Wednesday as cold surface high pressure builds in from the
west.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep mid level low centered over Lower Michigan to track across
northern Ohio today and into PA tonight. Disturbance to rotate
around this low thru the area this morning. As a result snow
showers are expected this morning, with the possibility of some
banded heavier areas of snow. These snow showers will be hit or
miss, but areas under heavier snow showers or bands could have
temporary IFR visibilities and lower end MVFR ceilings. Some
lighter snow showers may continue into the early afternoon.,
A second mid level disturbance and associated surface low to
rotate around the 5H low thru Indiana/southwest Ohio this
evening and into KY overnight. In response to this feature,
a steadier area of snow will move into the area (for all TAF
sites except KCMH/KLCK). This will bring IFR visibilities,
and MVFR to IFR ceilings, and some light snow accumulations.
The snow will taper off overnight with MVFR ceilings continuing
until Friday morning.
West winds around 10-12KTS will gust to around 20kts at times
overnight into Thursday morning. These winds will increase by
Thursday midday and afternoon, with gusts to around 25kts.
Winds will then decrease this evening and shift from west to
southwest.
OUTLOOK...Reduced visibilities with snow may continue into
Friday morning. MVFR ceilings will likely continue through
Friday and into Saturday. Gusty winds are possible on Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Friday for OHZ042-060>062-070>072-077>081.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 21, 5:01 AM EST---------------
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