IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 6:15 PM EST395
FXUS63 KIWX 162315
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
615 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloud cover continues to keep us warmer at night, but a little
cooler during the day through Sunday. Temperatures look to
trend warmer by Tuesday with highs securely into the 60s.
- Next best chance for rain arrives later Monday and continues
into Tuesday.
- Windy and cool conditions expected later next week as our next
system arrives. Wintry precipitation is possible depending on
the placement of the low pressure system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
As an upper low pressure system moves northward into Central Canada,
it pushes a cold front east, into the area Sunday morning. The ECMWF
does push its moisture plume into the area after 12z and there is a
connection to the Gulf of Mexico. However, model time sections
indicate there are areas of dryness in the low to mid levels
that may create drizzle or virga as it comes through. Hedging
towards nothing happening at this point, but future shifts will
want to watch for drizzle. An area of strung/sheared out
vorticity on the southern side of the aforementioned upper low
indicates the cold front stalling out. Given the lingering
moisture and residual lift, cannot rule out more sprinkles or
drizzle through the area, especially Sunday night. Have left 15
PoPs in there to blend with neighbors. The cold front pushes
through Monday morning allowing for peeks of sunshine. At the
tail end of the strung out area of vorticity is an upper low
that gets pushed northeastward Monday. This helps to push the
aforementioned stalled boundary northward as a warm front. Low
levels of the atmosphere are once again dry, leaving the chance
for rain low during the day. Better forcing and columnar
moisture finally arrives Monday afternoon/night just after 6z
and the cold front pushes through Tuesday morning. A mid level
dry slot likely shuts off rain Tuesday morning, but some
sprinkles/drizzle could linger on.
Behind this northeastward departing upper low, much cooler air
filters into the Central United States and encroaches on our door
step Wednesday. Meanwhile, the energy from the departing low
combines with a trough moving eastward from the western US and a
large upper low is created across the Central US. There is model
confluence in creating a development surface low in the I-69
corridor and, with cold air wrapping in, we could see some wintry
precip across the area, especially at night. Given the
intricacies of the dance of the energy of the aformentioned
pieces, it's hard to give any specifics, especially since model
solutions have flip- flopped during this time period. Either
way, the second half of next week looks cooler and windy.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
Low and mid level clouds have persisted throughout the day
today and will remain overnight. GOES satellite imagery and
forecast soundings hint that a few breaks in the clouds may be
possible overnight, but that ceilings should remain on the high
end MVFR to low end VFR range. Winds will increase tomorrow
morning with gusts to 20 kts possible.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 6:15 PM EST---------------
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