IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 2:22 PM EST049
FXUS63 KIWX 161922
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
222 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloud cover continues to keep us warmer at night, but a little
cooler during the day through Sunday. Temperatures look to
trend warmer by Tuesday with highs securely into the 60s.
- Next best chance for rain arrives later Monday and continues
into Tuesday.
- Windy and cool conditions expected later next week as our next
system arrives. Wintry precipitation is possible depending on
the placement of the low pressure system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
As an upper low pressure system moves northward into Central Canada,
it pushes a cold front east, into the area Sunday morning. The ECMWF
does push its moisture plume into the area after 12z and there is a
connection to the Gulf of Mexico. However, model time sections
indicate there are areas of dryness in the low to mid levels
that may create drizzle or virga as it comes through. Hedging
towards virga at this point, but future shifts will want to
watch for drizzle. An area of strung/sheared out vorticity on
the southern side of the aforementioned upper low indicates the
cold front stalling out. Given the lingering moisture and
residual lift, cannot rule out more sprinkles or drizzle through
the area, especially Sunday night. Have left 15 PoPs in there
to blend with neighbors. The cold front pushes through Monday
morning allowing for peeks of sunshine. At the tail end of the
strung out area of vorticity is an upper low that gets pushed
northeastward Monday. This helps to push the aforementioned
stalled boundary northward as a warm front. Low levels of the
atmosphere are once again dry, leaving the chance for rain low
during the day. Better forcing and columnar moisture finally
arrives Monday afternoon/night just after 6z and the cold front
pushes through Tuesday morning. A mid level dry slot likely
shuts off rain Tuesday morning, but some sprinkles/drizzle could
linger on.
Behind this northeastward departing upper low, much cooler air
filters into the Central United States and encroaches on our door
step Wednesday. Meanwhile, the energy from the departing low
combines with a trough moving eastward from the western US and a
large upper low is created across the Central US. There is model
confluence in creating a development surface low in the I-69
corridor and, with cold air wrapping in, we could see some wintry
precip across the area, especially at night. Given the
intricacies of the dance of the energy of the aformentioned
pieces, it's hard to give any specifics, especially since model
solutions have flip- flopped during this time period. Either
way, the second half of next week looks cooler and windy.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
Strong inversion in place will keep the stratus ceiling in place
for both TAF sites at/around 3000 ft, there will be some minor
bouncing up and down which may lower cigs into the IFR range but
expectation is MVFR conditions will mainly prevail through the
TAF period. Southeast winds around 8 knots will also prevail.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 2:22 PM EST---------------
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