ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 3:50 AM EST382
FXUS61 KILN 170850
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
350 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and mild conditions today.
Unsettled weather will then develop through mid week as a series
of weather disturbances affect the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some river valley fog across southern locations will persist
into mid morning before dissipating. Otherwise, for today, a mid
level ridge axis will move east while a mid level disturbance
pushes into the western Great Lakes. This feature will be
associated with a weak cold front. Varying amounts of high level
clouds (and opacity) will be the main weather theme for today,
along with mild temperatures. Filtered sunshine and southerly
flow will result in high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s
to the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
For tonight, the mid level disturbance will push east across
the central Great Lakes. This will advance the weak cold front
southeast into our northern forecast area. The lack of deep
moisture and significant lift will make it hard pressed for
precipitation to occur. However, a few light showers or
sprinkles could accompany the frontal boundary. Clouds will
thicken overnight as low level moisture spreads northeast ahead
of the front. Lows will generally range between 45 and 50
degrees.
On Monday, the weak frontal boundary eventually dissipates
while another mid level ridge briefly bulges northward into the
middle Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes. Cloud cover will
persist. By late in the day, some return flow/weak WAA may bring
a low chance for a shower across western zones. It will be warm
with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Above normal temperatures will be present at the start of the
long term as a warm front lifts northward and southerly flow
allows for high temperatures in the 60s to around 70 by Tuesday.
Breezy conditions will be present with some wind gusts up to 30
mph.
The pattern shift begins on Wednesday as a strong storm system
begins to approach and move through the region bringing much
cooler air with the potential for gusty winds and eventually
snow showers. Models are indicating a little less in the way of
instability for Wednesday than they were and therefore have
thunder mention out of the forecast, however given nature of
this system still expect a line of showers to form that will
likely bring stronger wind gusts.
As cold air rushes in Wednesday night and lows drop near the
freezing mark, rain showers will mix and change over to some
snow showers at times. There are some differences now on low
placement and strength of the low which will impact
temperatures, precipitation type, and winds. Temperatures will
struggle to rise Thursday with CAA and therefore have the high
temperature in the 30s for many locations. Additional gusty
winds are expected and will linger into Friday. While models are
not coming in quite as strong on the winds as they were, there
will still be the potential for wind gusts greater than 40 mph
and therefore will continue to mention in the HWO. Multiple
disturbances will keep precipitation chances in the forecast
through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through sunrise, a mid level ridge axis extending northward
across the Ohio Valley and into the central Great Lakes will
shift east. Surface wind flow will veer from southeast to south
between 5 and 10 knots. Winds will be light to calm in valleys.
Just some high level clouds are expected to filter through the
ridge. River valley fog has formed at KLUK where VLIFR
conditions have been observed. This should persist so have kept
conditions in the VLIFR range.
For today, as the mid level ridge axis moves east, a mid level
disturbance will push into the western Great Lakes. This feature
will be associated with a weak cold front. Again, just high
level clouds are expected with winds increasing from the south
between 8 and 12 knots with some local gusts north of the
terminals up to 18 knots.
For tonight, the mid level disturbance will push east across
the central Great Lakes. This will push the weak cold front
southeast into our northern forecast area. The lack of deep
moisture and lift will make it hard pressed for precipitation to
occur. A few light showers or sprinkles are expected with the
frontal boundary. The main concern will be the development of
MVFR and perhaps IFR ceilings as the low levels saturate.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible into Monday. MVFR
conditions likely Tuesday through Thursday. Winds gusts in
excess of 30 knots possible Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 3:50 AM EST---------------
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