PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 11:23 AM CST617
FXUS63 KPAH 161723
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1123 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and mild conditions continue through the weekend along
with a warming trend through Monday.
- Another round of showers is possible Monday evening through Tuesday
morning with a cold front.
- More rain comes back Wednesday through Thursday along with
colder than average temps.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
The upper level ridge axis remains over the region today and
tomorrow with sfc high pressure overhead today and just to the east
tomorrow. This coupled with southerly flow at the sfc gives us a
warming trend through Monday. Highs today will be in the upper 50s
to mid 60s, mid 60s to near 70 tomorrow, and upper 60s to lower 70s
Monday.
By Monday afternoon a shortwave trof with potential closed low
rounds through a broad, longwave trof setting up over the western
CONUS. This trof then ejects into the Central Plains and moves
through the upper Midwest Tuesday. The associated sfc low moves
through the southern and central Plains towards the upper Midwest.
This brings significant rain chances Monday evening through Tuesday
morning. Parts of SEMO will see around 0.25" while elsewhere is
likely to see less. This system also brings a cold front through the
region with cooler temps Wednesday in the 50s.
The longwave trof and its closed low cross into the Plains Tuesday
night and into the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. The
associated sfc low brings back precip chances Wednesday through
Thursday evening. A much cooler airmass then settles into place and
temps will struggle to reach 50 on Thursday. NBM looks to be a bit
warm on Thursday (and possibly Friday) given the set up and
proximity of the low. So went with CONSALL for Thursday highs along
with neighbor consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
MVFR stratus decks impacting CGI, MVN, EVV, and OWB will
gradually scatter out early this afternoon, with high cirrus
cloud coverage increasing in its wake tonight through Sunday.
Winds will be steady from the E-SE at 5-10 kts, becoming S after
15z Sunday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 11:23 AM CST---------------
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