ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 9:58 PM EST627
FXUS61 KILN 170258
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
958 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and mild conditions through Sunday.
Unsettled weather will then develop through mid week as a
series of weather disturbances affect the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Amplified flow pattern with a full latitude ridge over the area
building east of the region overnight. Surface ridge axis will
also shift off to the east tonight. Low level clouds are eroding
from the southwest and will clear the area. As the low
clouds move out some high level clouds will spill in from the
northwest.
Lows will range from the mid to upper 30s in the east to the
lower 40s in the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will be centered over the southeastern US
Sunday into Sunday night and this will help keep our region in
southwesterly low level flow. This will allow for warming temps
on Sunday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Some weak mid level energy will move across the Great Lakes
Sunday night as the mid level ridge flattens out over head and a
weak frontal boundary drops into our area from the northwest.
While moisture will be pretty limited, it will be tough to rule
out a few showers Sunday night, especially across our northwestern
areas. Lows Sunday night will be in the 45 to 50 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure extending from the southeastern United States
north into the Lower Lakes Monday will shift off to the east by
Monday night. Deep low pressure will lift northward through the
Plains States at this time, reaching the Upper Midwest Tuesday
morning. A weakening initial disturbance will move into the middle
Ohio Valley Tuesday morning ahead of the main energy, bringing a
period of rain showers. Meanwhile, a much stronger shortwave will
dig southeast into the southern Plains Tuesday night and into the
middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday. An associated surface low and
cold front will be developing ahead of this system. At this time, it
appears we may have adequate instability Wednesday afternoon for
some rather vigorous convection. Will need to continue to monitor
the forecast position, depth, and timing of the surface low, as this
will help to identify potential severe storm threats Wednesday
afternoon into the evening hours.
Gusty winds and much colder air will arrive Wednesday night in the
wake of the cold front. In addition, the upper low will begin to
slide east into the middle Ohio Valley heading into Thursday. There
remains plenty of uncertainty as to surface temperatures, and thus,
precipitation type during this time. Therefore, after collaboration
with surrounding offices, have added snow shower potential to the
National Blend's rainy forecast on Thursday. There remains the
potential for strong wind gusts on Thursday. Have bumped these up in
the grids from the upper 20-knot range into the 30-35 knot range...
which represents a mix of the 50th and 90th percentiles.
Below normal temperatures under northwest flow will continue into
the weekend as the mid to upper low slowly moves off to the
east.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR clouds which were in place today - have cleared KCVG and
KLUK. As surface high pressure moves off to the east tonight,
the clouds will continue to erode away from the southwest. This
will result in VFR conditions developing overnight. As the low
clouds move out some high level clouds will spill in from the
northwest.
Southeast winds dropping off to 5 KTs or less overnight will
veer to the south and then southwest on Sunday and increase to
around 10 KTs.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Sunday night into Monday. MVFR
conditions likely Tuesday through Thursday. Winds gusts in
excess of 30 knots possible Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 9:58 PM EST---------------
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