MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:33 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...781
FXUS64 KMOB 171733
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1133 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
Dry weather and VFR flight category prevails across the region
through Monday afternoon. Winds remain out of the southeast at
around 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon hours, diminishing to 5
to 10 knots at night. A few patches of fog remain possible
tonight over interior portions of south-central Alabama, but
should remain localized and only provide temporary reductions in
ceiling and/or visibility. MM/25
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
We transition from a dry forecast toward a soggy (potentially very
wet) forecast as we roll through the back end of the weekend and
slide into early next week.
For this morning, the forecast remains on track with patchy fog
being the only concern. Not anticipating dense fog (it's more like
shallow ground fog), but expect visibilities to bounce up and down
through the pre-dawn hours. A dry forecast is expected today and
tonight. Moisture levels begin to slowly creep upward as the upper
level ridge overhead slides eastward and a surface high settles into
the Southeast, allowing for deep onshore flow to set-up overhead by
tonight. Increasing onshore flow will lead to a very brief bump in
water levels tonight into the overnight hours. The P-ETSS guidance
indicates that water levels may briefly exceed 1.7 ft MHHW in the
northern part of Mobile Bay, thus a Coastal Flood Advisory is now in
effect for just that portion of the coastline. Note that the bigger
bump in water levels occurs Monday night along the entire coastline.
The increasing onshore flow will also lead to a MODERATE risk for
rip currents tonight.
As we roll into Monday, a surface low ejecting out of the Southern
Plains will zoom north-northeast across the Plains. This will act to
increase the pressure gradient across our area (between the low to
our northwest and surface high to our east), thus leading to gusty
conditions across the western portion of the area and along the
coastline in the afternoon hours. While the area stays dry through
the morning and afternoon hours, moisture levels quickly increase in
the afternoon as the winds begin to crank. Surf begins to build with
breakers approaching 3-4 feet by Monday afternoon with a HIGH RISK
of rip currents throughout the day. Low tide occurs mid-day on
Monday with increasing water levels along the coastline in the
afternoon hours (still below Advisory criteria at this point).
07/mb
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
A strong upper trough will eject northeast across the plains on
Monday and into the upper midwest by Monday night. A trailing cold
front will move east and approach the area Monday night into
Tuesday. Deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of
Sara will be drawn northward across the central Gulf coast with
precipitable water values over 2 inches. This will lead to the
potential of locally heavy rain across the area as the front moves
across on Tuesday. Isolated strong storms are possible and SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk for the area on Tuesday. High surf and
minor coastal flooding around high tide will be possible Monday
night into Tuesday.
A much cooler airmass will follow frontal passage for mid to late
week. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s inland to
upper 70s along the coast followed by upper 60s and low 70s on
Wednesday. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the upper 50s and
low 60s. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 63 80 70 76 59 70 43 62 / 0 10 70 100 30 0 0 0
Pensacola 67 79 72 76 65 73 47 62 / 0 0 40 90 50 0 0 0
Destin 66 79 72 79 68 77 49 65 / 0 0 30 90 70 10 0 0
Evergreen 52 77 65 74 58 70 39 60 / 0 0 50 90 50 0 0 0
Waynesboro 56 80 65 75 55 68 39 61 / 0 0 80 90 30 0 0 0
Camden 52 75 63 70 57 68 39 58 / 0 0 60 90 40 0 0 0
Crestview 53 80 66 78 60 76 40 64 / 0 0 30 90 60 10 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
for ALZ263-264.
High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:33 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
