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527 FXUS64 KMOB 171010AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL410 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 410 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024We transition from a dry forecast toward a soggy (potentially very wet) forecast as we roll through the back end of the weekend and slide into early next week.For this morning, the forecast remains on track with patchy fog being the only concern. Not anticipating dense fog (it's more like shallow ground fog), but expect visibilities to bounce up and down through the pre-dawn hours. A dry forecast is expected today and tonight. Moisture levels begin to slowly creep upward as the upper level ridge overhead slides eastward and a surface high settles into the Southeast, allowing for deep onshore flow to set-up overhead by tonight. Increasing onshore flow will lead to a very brief bump in water levels tonight into the overnight hours. The P-ETSS guidance indicates that water levels may briefly exceed 1.7 ft MHHW in the northern part of Mobile Bay, thus a Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for just that portion of the coastline. Note that the bigger bump in water levels occurs Monday night along the entire coastline. The increasing onshore flow will also lead to a MODERATE risk for rip currents tonight.As we roll into Monday, a surface low ejecting out of the Southern Plains will zoom north-northeast across the Plains. This will act to increase the pressure gradient across our area (between the low to our northwest and surface high to our east), thus leading to gusty conditions across the western portion of the area and along the coastline in the afternoon hours. While the area stays dry through the morning and afternoon hours, moisture levels quickly increase in the afternoon as the winds begin to crank. Surf begins to build with breakers approaching 3-4 feet by Monday afternoon with a HIGH RISK of rip currents throughout the day. Low tide occurs mid-day on Monday with increasing water levels along the coastline in the afternoon hours (still below Advisory criteria at this point).07/mb&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)Issued at 410 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024A strong upper trough will eject northeast across the plains on Monday and into the upper midwest by Monday night. A trailing coldfront will move east and approach the area Monday night into Tuesday. Deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Sara will be drawn northward across the central Gulf coast with precipitable water values over 2 inches. This will lead to the potential of locally heavy rain across the area as the front movesacross on Tuesday. Isolated strong storms are possible and SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for the area on Tuesday. High surf and minor coastal flooding around high tide will be possible Monday night into Tuesday.A much cooler airmass will follow frontal passage for mid to lateweek. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s inland toupper 70s along the coast followed by upper 60s and low 70s onWednesday. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the upper 50s andlow 60s. /13 &&.MARINE...Issued at 410 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024No impact expected through Monday afternoon. Advisory conditions with strong onshore flow and 6-7 ft seas (occasionally higher seas up to 9 ft) develops Monday night through Tuesday over the offshore waters. Winds turn northwesterly late Tuesday night behind a cold front. 07/mb&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 79 63 80 70 76 59 70 43 / 0 0 10 70 100 30 0 0 Pensacola 77 67 79 72 76 65 73 47 / 0 0 0 40 90 50 0 0 Destin 78 66 79 72 79 68 77 49 / 0 0 0 30 90 70 10 0 Evergreen 76 52 77 65 74 58 70 39 / 0 0 0 50 90 50 0 0 Waynesboro 78 56 80 65 75 55 68 39 / 0 0 0 80 90 30 0 0 Camden 75 52 75 63 70 57 68 39 / 0 0 0 60 90 40 0 0 Crestview 79 53 80 66 78 60 76 40 / 0 0 0 30 90 60 10 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for ALZ263-264. High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
