IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST834
FXUS63 KIWX 131900
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
200 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain arrives from south to north this evening, tapering to
showers and drizzle Thursday afternoon.
- Drying out Friday thought the start of the weekend.
- Remaining mild to start next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
Upper-level low is wrapping up over extreme western Iowa as of this
midday writing, per water vapor imagery. The surface low is lagging
behind slightly, but moisture advection is strong in the warm sector
as moisture flux buckles poleward atop a Southeast US ridge. Rain is
underway across southern Illinois lifting northeast. The
overall POP forecast remains on track. CAMs suggest a quick-ramp
up in rainfall which is plausible given a strengthening low-
level jet as we near 00z. Otherwise, in the mean time, dew
points in the 30s will need to be overcome. 12z RAP soundings
appear suspiciously fast at eroding a 30C dry slot, while HRRR
and NAM are favorably slower. Nonetheless, welcome rain is
arriving overnight and lingering into Thursday.
Forward progress of the now-stacked upper and surface lows slows
Thursday likely resulting in lingering showers or drizzle for most
of the day. The exception will be toward Lafayette where some dry
air intrusion is noted and lake enhanced rain is limited. A
subtle lake response (rain showers) is possible into Thursday
night but the cold air advection appears generally brief before
boundary- parallel flow resumes.
Drying out Friday with continued slightly above-normal warmth as
ridging resumes aloft. The ridge axis moves overhead Saturday with a
deep trough approaching the Four Corners. A baroclinic zone could be
the focus for showers Sunday night into Monday, but guidance is very
inconsistent with this. I stayed close to the existing forecast.
The Four Corners trough threatens to bring notably colder air
to the Midwest by late next week. This type of bowling-low low
(cut-off low) tends to be modeled poorly, so details locally are
sparse over one week away. The in-house blend is already
perhaps too fast with precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
The theme of the previous aviation forecast has been left intact
with deteriorating conditions heading into this evening and
especially into the overnight hours.
An upper level trough across the central/southern Plains will
shift eastward into Thursday morning. A zone of strong moisture
transport working north from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
stream northward into this evening, although best low level
moisture will likely be cut off across the OH/TN Valleys as low
level winds veer. Rain showers have already become widespread
across southern IL and western TN/KY this afternoon. These rain
showers will overspread terminals later this evening with an
expected rapid deterioration from VFR to lower end MVFR late
evening/early overnight. Trend to IFR and possibly LIFR
conditions still appears reasonable late tonight into Thursday
morning, with little opportunity for notable improvement through
end of this forecast valid period. Most of the rainfall should
occur through 12Z but light rain/pockets of drizzle will
continue into early Thursday afternoon. Fairly strong gradient
into this evening will be somewhat cancelled out in terms of
magnitude of wind gusts by limited mixing heights. This should
support gusts into the 15 to 20 knot range. Pre-frontal low
level jet may support LLWS conditions across NW Indiana late
evening/early overnight, but this setup appears marginal and
relatively short-lived.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST---------------
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