PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 1:41 AM CST323
FXUS63 KPAH 150741
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
141 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog is possible where clouds clear early this
morning. A fog advisory is in effect for portions of southeast
Missouri until 8 AM.
- Seasonally chilly temperatures will rebound this weekend into
early next week as high pressure builds. Highs into the lower
70s are possible each day Sunday through Tuesday.
- A significant pattern change remains forecast for late next
week, with much colder conditions onset by Thursday and
persisting into the following weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
A sharp clearing line has helped patchy dense fog to develop in
our western counties, where a Fog Advisory was issued. We'll
continue with its headline for this writing, though the fog is
shallow and might end up being cancelled early as a result.
High pressure strengthens its grip upon our weather at the
surface and aloft today, with both ridge axes moving directly
overhead. This will facilitate a complete clear-out of the
stubborn low clouds, as the mean long wave trof responsible is
healthily ejected to the east. Expect one more day of seasonal
chill before a moderation begins this weekend.
Temperatures climb as the high shifts east and return flow is
established to begin the new week. Highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s will occur daily for the first half of the week.
Our next chance of pcpn will be incoming by Tuesday as the high
is ultimately broken down and shifted far enough away when
large scale, highly amplified long wave troffing over the
western half of the country translates across the MS Valley. The
storm system's centers of low pressure remain well displaced to
the northwest as they track from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes. The ensemble means appear a little slow in shriveling the
chance of thunder as the system makes its approach/passage
during the mid week...instability will be far displaced to the
south and we anticipate this slight chance mention that lingers
only Monday evening may well eventually be removed. In fact, we
won't be surprised to see pops contract as well, as the best
moisture pools will be to the north, near the lows, and to the
south, within the best axis of instability. For now, we'll
await more run-to-run consistency for any such moves to make.
Ironically, thunder might need to be added in our far northeast
Wednesday, should the center of the H5 Low, projected to be
around 538DM at H5, barrels closer to the FA into Central IL.
After the lows move east into/across the Ohio River Valley, much
colder air will be swept in on its backside, and the result will
be plummeting temperatures with Thursday highs only in the 40s
to around 50, and lows back down in the 30s. Below normal
temperatures like this project on into the 6-10 day forecast and
may well extend into the 8-14 day as the longer range modeling
maintains our area under the influence of the deep/amplified
Eastern U.S. trof.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
Clearing across the far western portions of the region is in
response to high pressure ridging into the area, allowing fog to
develop where clouds clear. Drier air incoming suggests the fog
potential is brief and shallow, but restrictioins to LIFR/IFR
VSBYS are possible until then. This impacts mainly the KCGI
terminal, with KMVN/KPAH next in line but for this writing,
still on the cloudy side of the line. The clearing should
translate west-to-east across the terminals through the course
of the day as the central axis of the high pressure ridges
directly overhead. For our far east, and thus KEVV/KOWB, this
might take several hours to come to fruition.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>110.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 1:41 AM CST---------------
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