CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 12:52 AM EST273
FXUS61 KCLE 160552
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1252 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday before
drifting east of the local area Sunday. A weak cold front will
cross the area Sunday night with a more robust system arriving
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9:30 PM Update...
Skies continue to slowly clear in NW Ohio, but so far, fog has
not developed. Potential is a little better farther east in NE
Ohio and NW PA where drizzle has been occurring all day, so any
clearing that works into that area will need to be monitored
for fog. At this time, clouds still look to win out farther
east, so expect fog to be patchy overnight. Drizzle will take
most of the night to dissipate over NE Ohio and NW PA.
Original Discussion...
Overall, a quiet but dreary forecast is in store for the near
term period. The surface trough and inversion that have been
producing light lake-enhanced rain/drizzle across the area today
will remain in place through tonight before the surface trough
exits to the east this evening as a ridge continues to build in
from the west and drier air works into the near- surface levels.
This will allow any remaining lake-enhanced drizzle/showers to
taper off by early Saturday morning. However, the inversion will
most likely stick around through much of Saturday, which will
result in persistent and widespread low to mid-level clouds
through the majority of the day. Light winds and persistent
low- level moisture could make conditions favorable for patchy
fog across northwestern Ohio tonight and interior northeastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday night.
Tonight's lows will be in the lower 40s with highs reaching the
upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday. Partial clearing will
produce slightly chillier lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s
Saturday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front briefly drops southeastward through the CWA late Sunday
night into Monday, driven be an upper level trough axis embedded
within the southern periphery of a closed low aloft over northern
Ontario. This would create low level f-gen for the CWA as the cold
front comes through, and have POPs continuing for the forecast, but
in a higher confidence for the northern/eastern portions of the
area. Regardless, this is a low QPF feature temporarily replaced by
high pressure before the boundary returns as a warm front Monday
night. POPs back on the increase during this period, which is a
precursor to a more robust low pressure system that will move into
the region for the long term in a change in the synoptic pattern.
Temperatures on the mild side for mid November despite the weak
cold front, and have Monday/Tuesday in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still trying to iron out the details of the rapidly deepening upper
level low mid week with the associated surface mid latitude cyclone
and how they will affect our CWA. Higher confidence in a colder
airmass intrusion for the middle to end of the week behind a cold
front, and with an occluded surface system, possibly looking at a
setup with aligned surface/low level winds and lake effect
precipitation. Temperatures will obviously play a key role in
precipitation type and timing if ends up being diurnal transitions.
For now, the Thursday post frontal forecast is for widespread 40s
and near freezing overnight lows Thursday night. If the system
stacks and cuts off the cold air, this would impact things as well.
Again, expect details to materialize, but looks like a chilly
pattern at least for a few days beginning in the extended portion of
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Low stratus and a bit of drizzle south-southeast of Lake Erie
are the aviation concerns early this morning. Ceilings range
from VFR to IFR, with MVFR most common. There is some MVFR vsby
out there, though VFR is more common. The drizzle downwind of
the lake will continue through the pre-dawn but should end
completely around or just after 12z this morning. MVFR ceilings
will be common through a good portion of the day today. Brought
most sites back to VFR by the end of the TAF period as high
pressure builds in, though could see MVFR persist longer than
forecast. Will monitor for trends with the next TAF cycle. Given
the amount of cloud cover still around early this morning, it
will be tough to see fog develop. However, given high humidity
and light winds will monitor for localized clearing and fog
potential for possible amendments early this morning.
Light N to NW winds overnight will become light and variable
into Saturday as high pressure moves into the area.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in fog Saturday night into Sunday
morning and in showers Sunday night and Monday night through
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore N/NW winds bring 2-4ft waves, just shy of SCA conditions
through tonight, easing Saturday with waves less than a foot into
Saturday night. Winds become offshore, south to southwesterly Sunday
15-20kts and wave heights increasing away from shore. A cold front
comes through late Sunday night into Monday with west winds 10-20kts
and approaching SCA conditions Cleveland eastward, but then quickly
turning southeasterly 10-20kts with the cold front returning and
pushing back through as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Maines
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 12:52 AM EST---------------
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