IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 4:37 PM EST808
FXUS63 KIND 152137
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
437 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low clouds tonight with temperatures remaining in the 40s;
Potential for fog and low visibilities
- Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph next Tuesday and Thursday
- Potential for first snow Wednesday night into Thursday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
A rather cool and dreary weather pattern continues through the short
term over much of the state. Latest satellite imagery shows
widespread low stratus across the Great Lakes region and Midwest in
the wake of an area of low pressure east of Detroit. ACARs soundings
continue to depict a suppressed saturated layer around 1KM AGL with
subsidence induced dry air above. This will likely maintain the
stratus layer through the evening hours. There are some hints at
this stratus layer thinning out over portions of N/W central Indiana
early tonight, but most should remain within overcast skies.
Thick cloud cover throughout the day has significantly limited
diurnal warming leading to marginal dew point depressions this
afternoon and evening. This should allow for a nearly saturated
boundary layer overnight despite weak diurnal cooling beneath the
stratus layer. Surface high pressure also moves directly overhead
this evening creating peak subsidence and calming winds overnight.
The combination of elevated RH, calming winds and subsidence will
lead to lowering of the stratus layer, with some potential for this
stratus layer to reach the surface by tomorrow morning. If this does
occur, a widespread fog event is possible. For now, a near surface
level stratus layer is the forecast, including 3-5SM visibility
within misty conditions. We will closely monitor for trends
indicating further deterioration of visibility.
Tomorrow, temperatures will struggle to increase throughout the
morning, but by the early afternoon, high pressure moving off to the
east should create enough of a pressure gradient for mixing to
occur. This should lead to breaking of the stratus layer with
surface temperatures increasing into the mid 50s. There is a
scenario (mainly over eastern IN) that the stratus layer remains
intact, of which would significantly reduce expected high
temperatures (upper 40s).
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
Saturday Night Through Tuesday.
The warming trend will continue Saturday night into Sunday with
continued ridging across the Ohio Valley and strengthening southerly
flow near the surface as a low pressure system moves across Southern
Canada. Highs on Sunday and Monday will climb into the low to mid
60s. Cloud cover will gradually begin to increase late Monday as
the next rain producing system begins to move northeastward from the
Baja Peninsula into the Plains. The low pressure system across
Canada will help to push the system in a more northerly direction
than would typically be expected of a system tracking from the Baja
Peninsula. This will keep the heaviest rain west of the forecast
area with precipitation onset late Monday night. The greater impacts
from this system will be from gradient winds Tuesday as the boundary
layer deepens to around 4kft which will allow the mixing down of
winds to around 30-40 mph. Total rainfall is expected to be around a
quarter of an inch.
Wednesday Through Friday.
Much colder air will move in Wednesday in the aftermath of the
Tuesday system with increasing confidence in a secondary low
pressure system quickly moves in on the backend of the exiting first
system. There is a fair amount of ensemble spread on the daytime
highs for Thursday, but there is increasing probabilities that highs
will struggle to rise out of the 30s. There is also the potential
for central Indiana to see snow for the first time this season, but
confidence remains very low on the precipitation aspect of the
forecast this far out. Looking to next weekend and beyond the
pattern then looks to become quieter with drier than normal
conditions along with temperatures staying near to slightly below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 437 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR flying conditions in stratus through 17z-21z Saturday
- MVFR and possibly brief IFR fog possible 09z-14z
Discussion:
The challenge tonight will be how fast the back edge of the stratus
deck works its way eastward. Currently, the edge of the deck is over
far east central Illinois but it is only working its way very slowly
to the east. Very strong inversion around 3K feet and lingering
boundary layer moisture paints a pessimistic picture. So, left MVFR
ceilings in through mid day tomorrow at KLAF and KHUF and late
afternoon at KIND and KBMG. Any breaks in the stratus suggests MVFR
or briefly worse fog could form overnight into Saturday morning.
Winds will be very light and variable to calm tonight and light
southeast Saturday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 4:37 PM EST---------------
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