JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 3:50 PM EST637
FXUS63 KJKL 152050
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday, before
trending to around 10 degrees above normal for the first half
of next week.
- Rain chances return late Monday night into Tuesday and continue
through the rest of the work week.
- A colder pattern arrives later next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
The 20Z surface analysis has high pressure over the upper/mid
Mississipi Valley. Regional satellite shows low clouds and stratus
in place across the Midwest, with northerly winds steering some
of that moisture into eastern Kentucky. There is just enough of an
upslope component across our far eastern zones to generate some
patchy drizzle, or possibly light rain late this afternoon. This
precipitation will gradually taper off as evening approaches and
winds slacken and shift away from favorable upslope directions.
Clouds will take longer to clear across the area, entrenched over
eastern Kentucky until tomorrow when they will erode through the
day from south to north as flow begins to veer increasingly out of
the east-southeast.
The remainder of the short term is uneventful. Overall, sensible
weather features dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
Clouds will tend to moderate overnight lows, with most guidance
suggesting low to mid 40s for lows by tomorrow morning. We should
see at least some sunshine tomorrow as clouds gradually thin out
and dissipate, again from south to north. With our more southern
counties (closer to the KY/TN state line) clearing first, they
stand to gain the most from a warming sun through the day, with
temperatures climbing into the lower 60s. Further north, afternoon
highs will likely only make it into the mid to upper 50s. All in
all, tomorrow appears to be a typical late fall day with
seasonable temperatures and with everyone eventually getting at
least a peek at some sunshine. Additional mid/high clouds transit
the region tomorrow night. However, this moisture is not expected
to keep temperatures from bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s
for most locations by Sunday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 427 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
The forecast period begins with upper-level ridge building taking
place. As this ridge continues to build, surface high pressure will
remain over the forecast area and persist through early next week.
Due to this surface high being in place, temperatures Sunday and
Monday will climb into the mid to upper-60s. However, deterministic
models and their individual ensembles are in very good agreement
with multiple systems moving out of the Plains into the Great Lakes
which will bring a pattern shift to eastern Kentucky.
The first of these systems, is forecast to pivot out of the Upper
Great Plains into the Great Lakes and sag southeast. The surface low
will track through southern Canada with the cold front extending
south back into the Central Plains. Models are in agreement that the
front will dive as far south as the Ohio River and stall out to
becoming a stationary front on which the next system is expected to
develop and ride along. The next system is forecast to eject out of
the Desert Southwest northward toward the Upper Midwest through the
day Monday. While this occurs, the cold front will slowly track
toward the Commonwealth. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, highs will
climb into the upper-60s to lower-70s but increasing showers through
the day are expected. Showers are forecast to persist through the
day Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. A second, reinforcing
shortwave is expected to follow on the heels of the first one and
keep shower chances in the forecast Thursday into Friday.
Northwesterly flow around the vertically stacked system will pull
cold air into the system and bring below freezing temperatures into
the picture for Thursday. Forecast soundings over much of the area
on Thursday afternoon remain above freezing but can't rule out a few
snow flurries mixing into the rain showers Thursday evening into
Thursday night. Confidence remains low with column temperatures
which could result in more or less snow chances. High terrain
along the southeastern border will see the best chances for snow
showers with this event. Showers will continue into Friday as the
surface low ejects into New England and backside showers,
associated with the comma head, exists through the end of the
period.
Overall the forecast period will be highlighted by a pattern change
that's largely expected for this time of year. Before this system
arrives, high pressure will exist with above average temperatures.
However, the aforementioned pattern shift will bring rain showers
through the remainder of the week. Showers are expected mainly for
the lower elevations but as mid to low level temperatures fall, rain
may switch to snow on the high elevation of the southeastern
mountains. Temperatures will fall from above average highs to more
seasonal levels for the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
Starting out the period with generally LIFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS.
Patchy drizzle has also developed over portions of the area under
an upslope flow regime. The drizzle will most likely impact KSYM,
KJKL, KSJS, with a lower chance of drizzle being seen at KLOZ and
KSME. Based on surface observations and web cams, the drizzle is
heavy enough at times to cause drops in VSBYS, making the forecast
that much more challenging. Drizzle will last only as long as
winds remain out of the northwest and/or until they slacken so
that we lose that orographic forcing. There is only a gradual
improvement in CIGS expected through the period, and it is likely
CIGS will remain in MVFR territory or lower through much of the
forecast. Northwest winds will generally be light, around 5 kts
through the afternoon before slackening and becoming more variable
in nature tonight. Winds will remain around 5 kts or less through
the day tomorrow, with an easterly tendency.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 3:50 PM EST---------------
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