IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 6:20 PM EST381
FXUS63 KIWX 102320
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
620 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold front Monday afternoon passes through dry, but ushers in
a brief shot of colder air for Monday night and Tuesday.
- Return to near or slightly above normal temperatures
Wednesday into Thursday with another chance for showers
Wednesday night.
- Even warmer air begins to arrive as we approach next weekend
with highs possibly back into the 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Stout piece of energy was moving ENE on the southern portion of the
upper low passing across Wisconsin. Pockets of clearing ahead of
this feature, combined with 500 mb temps -20 C or colder are
allowing for steep lapse rates and a band of showers and even a
few lightning strikes across portions of Lake Michigan. HRRR had
the idea on development, but is struggling to catch up with
faster development. A few very light showers were
developing/clipping far NW parts of the area but will quickly
shift northeast. Have lowered pops quite a bit with a few hours
of token slgt chc pops until the best forcing departs into
central Lower MI. Winds have begun to mix down across Illinois
with somewhat gustier winds arriving into at least W/NW areas
into the evening before inversion sets up and reduced gust
potential.
Next potent system was already working quickly east along the
International border. This will intensify a bit more, moving into
the UP of MI by Monday morning with a stronger cold front sweeping
south during the afternoon. The most noticeable features will be the
arrival of much colder air (albeit brief) and increasing W to NW
winds which eventually shift more N and NE Monday night. 850 mb
temps will drop below zero, allowing for an increase in lake induced
instability and maybe a small window for a stray shower in the far NW
late afternoon before the flow shifts. No mention in the forecast
for the time being as it would be brief and probably no more than a
trace setup. Tuesday appears to be the coldest day of the upcoming
period with forecasted highs maybe a touch too warm given strength
of the cold push. Lowered highs a bit, but even so an overall
seasonably cold day (averages in the low 50s).
The coldest air will quickly shift away, but a lingering weak E to
SE flow will result in a slow warmup Tue night into early Wed as the
next trough shifts east across the Plains. Models continue to
waffle on not only potential phasing with weaker southern stream
energy, but also timing of slug of deeper moisture that streams
rapidly north ahead of the trough. While at least sct showers should
accompany the front mainly Wednesday night, just can't go with
likely pops at this stage with how much models are varying.
Despite the strength of the trough, little in the way of CAA occurs
with upper level ridging quickly building in. This will bring a
return to dry conditions late Thu night into at least Saturday and
quite possibly the entire weekend before a weak, most likely
moisture starved front arrives just outside the current period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Minor CAA overnight will likely support periods of MVFR ceilings
(fuel-alternate possible) at KSBN late tonight into Mon morning.
Confidence in timing and ceiling heights is not high though with
a fair amount of variability in both model guidance and upstream
obs. Will split the difference for now with high-end MVFR. VFR
expected to persist at KFWA though some brief MVFR is possible
early Mon morning. Wind gusts will diminish overnight but pick
up again and veer NW Monday afternoon as another (dry) cold
front passes.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 6:20 PM EST---------------
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