IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 9:36 AM EST731
FXUS63 KIWX 101436
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
936 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy drizzle and fog to lessen this morning. A few showers
near Lake Michigan later this afternoon.
- Mild and becoming windy today, with a transition to cooler
temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
- Another chance of rain showers Wednesday/Wednesday night but
rainfall amounts should be on the light side.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Main area of rainfall has exited the forecast area with the bulk
of the lift also departing. Low level lift and moisture remains
as we await the synoptic cold front and area of drier air
showing up nicely on water vapor. Have adjusted grids to lower
pops east, but leave some drizzle and fog in for a few hours.
Steepening lapse rates are expected later this afternoon (21Z
ish) that should pops a few showers and maybe a storm across far
NW areas near the lake with CAMs showing bulk of the activity
remaining north of the area. Previous pops handling this so no
changes needed. Outside of the showers, increased mixing should
bring a period of gusty winds this afternoon, especially if more
in the way of clearing occurs to maximize the mixing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
A warm front will continue to lift northward into southern
Lower Michigan this morning with continued broad warm/moist
advection. The upper level low lags far back to the west this
morning and will reach central Wisconsin by mid afternoon. A mid
level dry slot is rapidly advecting northward downstream of
this feature and should result in diminishing rain showers from
west to east across much of northwest/north central Indiana and
southern Lower Michigan. Back edge of precip is moving across
west central Indiana at this time, but some possibility that
over next few hours rain showers could fill back in for a time
as a sheared vorticity maximum and upper speed max lift across
the southern Great Lakes. It still appears as though best
chance for more substantial rainfall amounts in excess of 0.50"
will be most favored along and east of Interstate 69 where
deeper moisture will have the greatest residence time. Guidance
cross sections still suggest some weak convective instability
with some subtle hints of some more highly elevated slantwise
instability east of Interstate 69 this morning that could
contribute to more localized bands of rainfall amounts in the
0.50- 0.75" inch range. The afternoon hours should feature
diminishment in rain but lagging upper level low moving across
the western Great Lakes and associated cold mid level pocket and
some limited mid level moisture recovery could allow for
isolated/scattered shower development this afternoon across the
far north, with an outside chance for a rumble of thunder across
Lower Michigan. Elsewhere, advancing cold front and increased
pre and post-frontal mixing should result in breezy/windy and
mild conditions this afternoon with strongest afternoon gusts
expected across western half of the area based on cold frontal
timing.
For tonight, post-frontal stratocu appears most likely along and
north of US 6 corridor. Stronger wind gusts will diminish early
this evening but low levels should remain mixed well enough
overnight to keep low temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.
Another ridge-riding upper level short wave is expected to drop
southeast across the northern Great Lakes on Monday, driving a
secondary cold front into the area. Guidance has trended a bit
stronger with this feature over past several cycles. This should
keep a moderately strong westerly low level flow in place for
Monday, with seasonable temperatures and breezy conditions once
again. Will go with highs in mid-upper 50s for Monday, but a more
extensive stratocu field could develop Monday that may make
currently forecasted highs a bit optimistic in some areas.
Broad low level thermal trough and poor mixing under the influence
of broad low level anticyclone will provide Tuesday with the
coldest conditions of this period as highs likely top out in the
upper 40s to around 50. This thermal trough will have a short
residence time as long advertised Pacific wave for midweek
drives another period of warm advection. Guidance has had a
difficult time in terms of run to run consistency with an
overall disjointed nature of this forcing. It does appear low
level moist tongue with this feature will be quite progressive
and narrow in scope which should limit rainfall amounts midweek.
Thursday and Friday should feature seasonable temperatures, but some
moderation back to well above normal is expected again by the end of
this forecast valid period as a larger scale upper trough develops
across western CONUS, with eventual additional chances of rain
showers next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Lower ceilings that were lagging areas of rain and numerous
showers were just moving into FWA at the start of the TAF period.
IFR clouds and areas of drizzle prevailed over most of northern
Indiana. Continued TAFs with drizzle and IFR ceilings before
improving conditions later this morning then clearing this
afternoon. Winds will diminish some late today into this
evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 9:36 AM EST---------------
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