BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 12:09 AM EST674
FXUS61 KBOX 110509
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1209 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds today ahead of a cold front that brings light
accumulations of rain to the region overnight tonight. Warm on
Monday. Another Cold front brings cool and gusty winds again on
Tuesday. Less windy with seasonable temps Wednesday. Trending
drier for Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10PM Update:
Rain is starting to reach the ground, but is still fighting dry
air with dewpoint depressions still greater then 10F. Timing of
the rain remains on track with it moving offshore by 8am Monday
morning.
Previous discussion:
A progressive frontal wave will bring a much needed soaking of rain
to southern New England this evening and overnight. Guidance has
been consistent over the last 24 hours in bringing showers into
western MA/CT between 8PM and midnight. There is some uncertainty in
how much rainfall those along and north of I-90 may receive with hi-
res models hinting at anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch 0.2
inches. Confidence is a bit higher across RI and southeastern MA
where a modest 0.1 to 0.3 inches of rainfall is expected. Showers
will exit the region between 5am and 8am tomorrow morning. Winds
remain steady out of the southwest this evening with lows ranging
from the mid to upper 40s across interior/northwestern MA to the low
to mid 50s across southeastern MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow
Showers exit east of The Cape/Islands by 10am. This will be followed
by gradually clearing skies and a very mild afternoon. Southwest
flow will advect a much warmer air mass into southern New England
with 925 hPa temps rising to near 10 Celsius. With a well mixed
boundary layer in the wake of the exiting frontal system, we should
see surface temperatures in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s across
portions of eastern MA and RI tomorrow afternoon. Areas at elevation
west of I-495 will be a bit cooler in the low to mid 60s. Winds
remain steady out of the southwest with periods of 20 to 30 mph
gusts over The Cape/Islands for the first half of the day. Winds
shift west during the mid-afternoon as the pressure gradient
slackens bringing an end to the stronger wind gusts.
Tomorrow Night
A strong surface cold front crosses the region tomorrow night
quickly bringing an end to the brief warm up from Monday afternoon.
Low-level CAA brings 925 hPa temps back down close to freezing which
will support somewhat normal low temps in the low 40s across
southern New England for TUesday morning. Winds shift northwest
behind the front. With CAA supporting a well mixed boundary layer,
stronger winds aloft may mix down to the surface with wind gusts
between 20 and 30 mph carrying into Tuesday. &&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
*Colder Tuesday and then even moreso Wednesday into late week with
highs in the 40s.
*Likely remains dry through the weekend, but chance for some showers
over eastern MA on Friday into Saturday.
*Temperatures warm a bit for the weekend, back into the mid to upper
50s.
Details...
A reinforcing push of dry air comes Tuesday behind a dry cold front,
ushering in a much colder airmass compared to Monday on NW winds.
Highs will only reach into the 50s. Expect quite a blustery day
as SNE is sandwiched between exiting low pressure over Nova
Scotia and high pressure over the Great Lakes. This induces a
30-35 kt LLJ which, with CAA enhanced mixing, will pull down
gusts of 25-35 mph. By Wednesday mid level ridging returns with
surface high pressure so winds will be light but temperatures
even colder, in the 40s. The hope for a substantially wetting
rain on Thursday is all but gone at this point with the
shortwave actually dipping too far south and missing southern
New England. At this point the best hope for some relief looks
to be over eastern MA as the shortwave may pull Tuesday's cutoff
low back west toward the region close enough to get see some
rain. Looking beyond that, ridging does look likely to return
later in the weekend for a drier forecast but with moderating
(warmer) temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z Update...
Rest of Tonight...Moderate Confidence
Light rain and MVFR CIGS down to a 1kft have spread across the
region and will continue through 10-12z, 12-15z for the Cape and
Islands. There could be pockets of IFR tonight, but confidence
was not high enough to include in any TAFs. Winds remain SW
tonight, gradually increasing overnight.
Today...Moderate Confidence
Quick improvements to VFR expected behind the rain shield, with
only pockets of MVFR possible until about 15-16z. Winds
gradually turn west, but gusts up to 25 knots start in the
morning after 12z.
Tomorrow Night...High Confidence
VFR. West winds becoming northwest with a frontal passage after
06Z. 20 knot gusts develop behind the front with the northwest
wind shift.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
MVFR with light rain through about 11-12z. There could be brief
periods of IFR overnight, but confidence was not high enough to
include in TAF. Quick clearing to VFR after 12z this morning.
Winds become gusty behind the clearing up to 25 knots.
KBDL TAF... High Confidence in TAF.
MVFR with light rain through about 10-11z. CIGS quickly return
to VFR after 11-12z, then winds turn west and become gusty up to
20 knots.
Outlook/Monday through Wednesday/
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight
Conditions deteriorate mainly over the southern marine zones
overnight as southwest winds strengthen ahead of a frontal wave
moving across the region. Southwest winds increase to 25 to 30
knots over the south coastal waters with seas building to 5 to 7
feet. A few gale force gusts may be possible, but overall expect
SCY conditions to prevail.
Tomorrow
SCY conditions persist over the south coastal waters, but
west/southwest winds gradually diminish during the day. Seas
also gradually subsiding.
Tomorrow Night
A cold front crosses over the coastal waters tomorrow night
resulting in a wind shift to the northwest. Expect gusty
northwest winds behind the front with sustained speeds of 20
knots and gusts from 20 to 25 knots.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will be alleviated by rainfall tonight,
but may return Tuesday with strong NW winds behind the passage
of a dry cold front
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/RM
NEAR TERM...RM/KP
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...BW/RM
FIRE WEATHER...BW/RM
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 12:09 AM EST----------------
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