IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 5:47 AM EST860
FXUS63 KIND 121047
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
547 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather and near seasonal temperatures expected through
tonight
- Rain will move in late Wednesday and continue into Thursday
- More rain chances late weekend into early next week
- Above normal temperatures expected Wednesday through early
next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
Current surface analysis shows surface high pressure building
in behind a cold front which is now located well south of central
Indiana. Cold air advection should continue to strengthen high
pressure over the region supporting quiet weather through the
short term period.
Expect increasing subsidence above a slightly saturated PBL to
promote scattered low clouds during the day. Forecast soundings
support this showing a strong subsidence inversion with some
saturation within a shallow layer beneath 850mb. These clouds are
likely going to gradually mix out during the day due to daytime
mixing. Wind direction will veer, becoming easterly by midday as
high pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes. Guidance
suggests that the surface high remains far enough north today
to keep a weak pressure gradient in place. This should allow for
a slight breeze.
Subtle warm air advection ahead of an approaching low pressure
system will limit diurnal cooling to some degree tonight. Increasing
mid-high clouds are also going to help prevent more favorable
radiational cooling conditions. Despite these limitations, expect
near seasonal temperatures today and tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
Models are coming into better agreement for the return of rain to
central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.
An upper trough will move to not far west of the Mississippi River
by 00Z Thursday. In advance of the trough, an 850mb jet will bring
moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico into the area, including from
the remnants of Rafael.
Rain will have to overcome initially very dry low levels, but given
the amount of moisture being brought north, can believe that rain
will move into the southwest forecast area by 00Z Thursday. Will go
likely PoPs there with lower PoPs to the northeast.
Wednesday night, the 850mb jet will continue to pump moisture into
the area, with precipitable water values well over climatological
norms. The upper trough will move in, along with an upper level jet.
The combination of these will lead to rain across the area, so will
go high PoPs all locations.
Best convergence at 850mb will be south of the Ohio River, where
wind speeds begin to drop off. This should help focus the higher
rainfall amounts south of central Indiana. Will have to watch for
convection robbing some of the moisture as well.
The upper trough will encounter some resistance moving east thanks
to a blocking pattern, so some rain will linger on Thursday. Will
keep some likely PoPs east with lower PoPs west, with highest values
in the first half of the day.
Rainfall amounts vary amongst the models. DESI viewer shows that the
LREF has lower probability of widespread values in excess of half an
inch while other blended guidance is more optimistic. The heaviest
rain should fall across southern portions of the area, and some
guidance does suggest that up to around an inch is possible far
south. However, that will depend on the caveats mentioned above.
Dry weather should return for Friday and then continue into
Saturday. The next system looks to arrive around Sunday, with yet
another one moving in around Tuesday. Uncertainty remains on the
speed of these systems with potential blocking to the east. For now
will keep some chance PoPs around in the Sunday to Tuesday time
frame.
Temperatures look to remain near or above normal through the long
term, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 546 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
Impacts:
- VFR conditions through the period
- Wind shift to easterly by midday
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.
A cold front which passed through central Indiana Monday evening has
shifted winds to northeasterly. Winds will continue to veer today,
becoming easterly by midday and eventually southeasterly towards the
end of the period. Sustained winds have dropped off overnight, but
they will restrengthen to 8-11KT during the day.
Aside from some lower stratocumulus today mostly clear skies are
expected. Increasing mid-high clouds are then likely tonight as a
system approaches. This system will not result in any restrictions
through 18Z Wednesday, but lower ceilings and widespread
precipitation are expected late Wednesday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Melo
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 5:47 AM EST---------------
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