PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 1:51 AM EST932
FXUS61 KPBZ 110651
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
151 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will end overnight behind a last round of briefly moderate
rain with the cold front. Another disturbance may bring showers
Monday, mainly north of Pittsburgh. Dry and seasonably cool
weather follows for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Last line of gusty showers overnight with crossing cold front
- Clearing is expected behind the front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The cold front has crossed into the area as of midnight,
bringing with it a thin line of gusty showers and briefly
moderate-to-heavy rain. This feature will continue shifting east
over the next 3-4 hours, producing wind gusts around 30 to
possibly 40 mph.
Temperatures will begin to finally drop behind the front as warm
advection ends and clearing begins, but a better push of colder
air isn't expected until Monday night. Morning lows will remain
in the 40s to near 50 along the Mon Valley. The low-level jet
continues to weaken and shift east, which will keep any post-
frontal wind gusts from exceeding 30 MPH save for the ridges,
where a gust or two to 40 MPH is possible on the higher peaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Lower confidence rain Monday into Monday night.
- Dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A secondary trough will cross the Great Lakes on Monday with a
trailing cold front and better cold advection following Monday
night. This feature should reintroduce showers to the forecast
Monday afternoon into the overnight, though focus will be
primarily north of Pittsburgh. Extent and longevity of coverage
remains somewhat uncertain, dependent on the depth and
progression of the upper wave. A slower departure would favor
cooler temperatures and lingering precip chances through Monday
night while a faster pattern favors warmer, drier
conditions. Regardless, much more seasonable low temperatures
are expected Tuesday morning given arrival of colder air and
building high pressure.
Upper troughing will slide east on Tuesday as ridging and
surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. This favors
dry weather and temperatures closer to the seasonal average.
Wednesday morning will be our next chance of seeing freezing
temperatures, as most of the area outside of northern WV has a
90-100% chance of reaching 32F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Better rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday but still
some uncertainty.-
- Highs a few degrees above normal.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles agree on another round of low pressure crossing the
Great Lakes sometime late Wednesday into Thursday, though
confidence remains low in the details. This introduces Chance
PoPs into the forecast overnight Wednesday through Thursday.
High pressure looks likely by Friday as drier conditions return
and continue into the weekend. High temperatures will run a few
degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the front crosses the region through dawn, cold air
advection will begin. This will bring some MVFR and IFR cigs
through dawn. Some scattering is possible behind the front but
widespread improvements are not expected until the daytime. Said
cold front passage will shift wind from south to west/northwest
overnight.
In addition, there is moderate confidence in marginal low level
wind shear development potentially for all sites prior to
frontal passage. This will be contingent on how much mixing down
of a 35-40 kt low level jet we can manage, but soundings
indicate that there will be a period of lighter wind at the
surface when the core of the jet is overhead, so have opted to
maintain in this TAF issuance. Behind the front, gusts become
more likely in a mixed thermal profile up to around 850mb. A
maintained gradient into the day with cold advection in the low
levels will encourage continued mixing of westerly wind gusts.
Winds will then gust out of the northwest through the coming day
with some gusts reaching 20 to 25 knots.
.Outlook...
Another passing wave tomorrow night will continue to allow for a
60% to 90% chance of MVFR with perhaps a maintained chance of
some gusts up to 20kts at the surface. Another passing front may
allow a 30% to 50% chance of additional rain. Thereafter, VFR is
expected through at least Wednesday night.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley/CL
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 1:51 AM EST---------------
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