CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 7:01 PM EST334
FXUS61 KCLE 120001
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
701 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the region this evening
before a surface trough lingers across Lake Erie through Tuesday
morning. Canadian high pressure will build east over the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure will move across the region
Thursday with high pressure returning by the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
7:00 PM Update:
A cold front extends from north-central OH northeast across Lake
Erie as of this writing, and is just pushing ashore from
Cleveland points east. Showers have developed along the front
east of Cleveland and will sweep southeast with the front. A
secondary trough drops across the lake late this evening
bringing winds around to a more north-northeast direction. A few
lake-enhanced showers may also accompany this secondary trough.
Other than tweaking the western extent of the POPs a bit based
on observed trends this evening, did not make notable changes to
the forecast with this update.
Previous Discussion:
The primary weather feature through the first half of the near
term will be the passage of a cold front this evening. Ahead of
the front, broken to overcast cloud cover and gusty southwest
winds are common across the region. The actual front will swing
eastward this evening and early tonight. Winds behind the front
turn northwesterly which will allow for rain chances to increase
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Scattered
lake effect rain showers across Cleveland and points east
tonight through early Tuesday morning before tapering off.
By Tuesday, an area of high pressure will begin to build eastward
which will cut off any lingering lake effect showers and cloud cover
by Tuesday afternoon. Expect for dry, but chilly, conditions to
continue through the end of the near term. Overcast conditions
tonight will keep low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s
tonight. Much cooler air mass in place behind the cold front and as
Canadian high pressure builds overhead. Slightly below normal high
temperatures tomorrow in the low to mid 40s for most, some sites may
rise into the upper 40s. Clear skies overnight Tuesday night will
allow for chilly overnight lows to dip below freezing for much of
the area. Portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania may
dip into the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mid/upper shortwave ridging will briefly build across the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes Wednesday ahead of a fast moving mid/upper
trough crossing the Plains. Southerly flow and resultant warm air
advection behind the departing surface high over New England
combined with the rising heights will allow highs Wednesday to
rebound into the mid/upper 50s in most areas despite increasing
clouds. As the upstream mid/upper trough swings into the Great Lakes
Wednesday night and Thursday, it will start to deamplify as it
separates from the northern branch of the jet. This will lead to the
surface low weakening as it crosses the southern Great Lakes
Thursday, so the associated cold front Thursday night will be
weakening without an airmass change. Nevertheless, increased PoPs to
near 100 from west to east late Wednesday night and Thursday since
forcing from an initial 100-110 knot H3 jet streak lifting across
the Ohio Valley will generate isentropic ascent showers with a
warm front early in the day Thursday, followed by additional
showers with the cold front and wraparound moisture late
Thursday and Thursday night. As mentioned, there is no real
airmass change, and 850 mb temps do not cool enough for a pure
lake response Thursday night, but the wraparound moisture as the
weakening trough/low departs to the ESE will keep showers going
through Thursday night, so have likely PoPs through the night.
Highs Thursday will be slightly cooler from the precip, with upper
40s/mid 50s expected. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will
range from the mid 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A lingering surface trough and some wraparound moisture will keep a
few showers around Friday, especially in the morning across NE Ohio
and NW PA, but a large area of surface high pressure building in
from the Upper Midwest Friday night will dry everything out, with
dry conditions areawide Saturday as the high becomes centered in the
Great Lakes. This will bring a mostly sunny and continually mild
start to the weekend as mid/upper heights quickly rise in response
to renewed western CONUS troughing. A northern piece of that
upstream mid/upper trough looks to eject across the northern Plains
Sunday and into the Great Lakes Monday while deepening and digging
in response to phasing with additional energy over eastern Canada.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance are coming into agreement on
this overall pattern, with just differences in timing and the degree
of cold air. This could support a strong cold frontal passage late
Sunday or Monday, with showers tied to the cold front and synoptic
support followed possible lake-effect precip early next week in a
broad, chilly, cyclonic flow. Kept NBM PoPs and temps for now, with
slight chance PoPs Sunday increasing to high chance Sunday night and
Monday. Highs in the low/mid 50s Friday will warm into the mid/upper
50s Saturday and upper 50s/low 60s Sunday before cooling into the
mid/upper 50s Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Currently observing VFR across the entire area. A cold front
extends from north-central OH northeast across Lake Erie, and
will sweep southeast across the area over the next couple of
hours. Showers are likely at ERI through 1z, and can't be ruled
out at YNG. ERI may see brief MVFR ceilings and vsby in the
showers. The front will bring a sharp wind shift to the
northwest with gusts 20-30 knots, briefly stronger near the
Lake Erie shoreline. A secondary trough will drop across the
area between about 3-7z Tuesday, bringing winds around to a more
due northerly direction and also bringing in a bank of MVFR
stratus to most or all sites. A few rain showers may also
accompany this trough south of Lake Erie. MVFR stratus will
persist well into Tuesday before gradually mixing out through
the afternoon and early evening as high pressure builds in.
Winds are shifting northwesterly as a cold front moves through
this evening, with brief sustained winds of 12-20kt and gusts
20-30kt right behind the front. Gusts to 35kt are possible along
the eastern Lake Erie shoreline, including at ERI. These
stronger gusts will gradually subside by late evening. Winds
will turn more north-northeast late this evening into the
overnight at 8 to 15kt as a secondary trough pushes through.
Winds will remain generally northeast and gradually subside
through the day Tuesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periods of rain Wednesday night
through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
W to WSW winds will briefly increase to 20-30 knots this evening as
a cold front crosses the lake. This will cause a period of low water
in the western basin. Confidence is low because of the short
duration, but the critical mark for safe navigation is 3 inches
above low water datum, and suspect that levels will briefly drop
below that mark for two or three hours. Issued a Low Water Advisory
until 03Z to put some buffer in place, but it will be very short as
mentioned if it occurs. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisories continue
through 15Z Tuesday for the far western basin and 18Z elsewhere.
Winds will become NE quickly Tuesday afternoon and decrease to 5-10
knots before turning SE and increasing to 10-15 knots Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Winds will turn S and further increase Wednesday
night and Thursday to 15-25 knots, so additional Small Craft
headlines are likely. Winds will then veer to NW and decrease to 5-
15 knots Thursday night through Saturday, so it will be a quieter
end to the week and start to the weekend on Lake Erie.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ142-143.
Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>144-
162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Garuckas
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 7:01 PM EST---------------
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