IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 3:01 AM EST355
FXUS63 KIND 100801
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
301 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain diminishing northwest to southeast into early afternoon
- Above normal temperatures will likely continue through late week,
but brief near seasonal temperatures are possible Tuesday
- Rain chances return late Wednesday into early Thursday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Early this morning, an upper low was across eastern Nebraska. Strong
southerly flow aloft was bringing in moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico (as can be seen on the CIRA Blended Layer Precipitable Water
imagery). This was allowing rain to fall across much of central
Indiana.
Low level moisture will continue to be brought northward by a warm
conveyor belt, but as the morning progresses, the focus of this will
gradually shift south and east. Also through 12-15Z or so, an upper
level jet streak will move northward through western Indiana into
lower Michigan. The right entrance region of this streak will focus
forcing more into southern and eastern portions of the area as it
moves north.
Meanwhile, a warm front will move northeast through central Indiana
in the predawn hours. The combination of the forcing from the
aforementioned features and the plentiful moisture will lead to
widespread rain early this morning, with highest coverage shifting
south and east through the remainder of the morning.
Will go high PoPs most areas before 12Z. By 12Z the northwest
forecast area will only see scattered coverage (chance category
PoPs) with high PoPs farther south and east. By 18Z, only far east
and southeast areas will have some chance PoPs.
Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, mainly far south, but
instability will be quite limited.
After the rain ends, clouds will diminish into the afternoon. Mixing
will then bring down some gusty winds, up to 25 to 30 mph most
areas. A cold front will move through this afternoon, but with the
moisture gone, no rain is expected with it.
Being in the warm sector of the system into the afternoon will allow
temperatures to peak in the 60s to around 70.
Tonight, cooler air will flow into the area, with lows in the lower
40s common. Wrap around moisture could bring some stratocumulus into
the northern forecast area by late tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Monday through Tuesday night...
Quiet weather conditions are expected early in the period with
surface high pressure building in behind a departing low pressure
system. A backdoor cold front will be moving through Monday evening,
but a lack of moisture should limit any precipitation chances. The
more noticeable impact from the dry front is going to be increased
cloud cover late in the day followed by cooler temperatures
overnight. Forecast highs on Monday range from the upper 50s to low
60s. By Monday night, temperatures finally return to near seasonal
though a warm up looks likely once again towards midweek. Strong
surface high pressure centered over the region Tuesday should
provide plentiful sunshine.
Wednesday through Saturday...
Model guidance shows an upper trough and associated low pressure
system pushing across the Midwest late Wednesday into early Thursday
morning returning rain chances to the forecast. Increasing dynamics
and moisture advection supports the potential for rainfall, but
overall forcing/moisture is modest which will limit QPF amounts. The
strongest large scale ascent remaining displaced further northwest
of central Indiana closer to the parent trough plays a part in this.
A widespread soaking rain like we are seeing with the low pressure
system moving through today appears unlikely. Thunder is also
unlikely due to modest moisture return and poor lapse rates.
Surface high pressure builds back in on Thursday once the low
pressure system departs which will promote quiet weather conditions
through at least Friday night. Ensembles show another system
approaching over the weekend leading to increasing rain chances.
While there are low rain chances in the forecast for Saturday,
confidence in precipitation is very low due to diverging model
solutions. NBM also tends to bring rain chances in too early when a
very dry airmass is out ahead of approaching systems. Low POPs will
remain for Saturday at this time due to the low confidence, but a
dry forecast appears more likely. Temperatures are expected to
remain above normal mid-late week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1208 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
Impacts:
- IFR ceilings overnight through at least late morning
- Gusty SW winds this afternoon
Discussion:
Rain will continue to overspread the sites early in the period, with
ceilings falling to IFR at all sites by around 10Z. Lower than IFR
conditions are possible. IFR will persist through the morning, then
improvement will occur with drier air moving in. All sites return to
VFR by around 21Z.
Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts around 25kt possible.
Winds will diminish after 00Z Monday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 3:01 AM EST---------------
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