ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 1:42 PM EST110
FXUS61 KILN 091842
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
142 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move into the region bringing increasing clouds
throughout the day on Saturday. Rain showers arrive to the region Saturday
late night and continue through the remainder of the weekend. The area
dries out for the start of the work week and temperatures rebound to
slightly above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure to build east across the Great Lakes with
mid level ridge centered over the area this aftn. Dry weather to
continue during the daylight hours with rain holding off until
tonight. Expect to see an increase in mid and high level clouds
thru the afternoon.
High temperatures to top out from 60 north to the mid 60s along
and south of the Ohio River. Previous forecast on track and have
only adjusted dewpoints slightly lower in the dry airmass.
Lowest RH values drop to around 30 percent in the Scioto River
Valley. Southeast winds to stay at or below 10 mph. Looking at
RH, winds, and 10 hour fuel above 8 percent, continue previous
forecast thinking not anticipating too many fire weather
concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The quiet weather is short lived as 500H closed low in the
Plains begins to occlude, open up, and works its way east.
Consequentially, clouds gradually lower this evening, and winds
shift to out of the east/southeast.
The area of surface high pressure will have progressed
southeast, settling over the Atlantic coastline, while the 500H
occluding low barrels into the Ohio Valley. Despite the low
occluding and opening up into the larger flow, its surface
features will still lift through the ILN CWA in the form of a
warm front, brief warm sector, then cold front from Saturday
night through Sunday night.
Precipitation arrives as early as Saturday evening. Some very
weak instability might allow for a rumble of thunder,
particularly south of the Ohio River, but otherwise should just
be rain showers. Overnight low temperatures into Sunday morning
fall to the mid 50s in the southwest where the warm sector will
be in place longer and upper 40s near central Ohio.
Despite the low occluding and opening up, this will still
create a tight pressure gradient between the low to the
northwest and the high to the southeast. This acts to introduce
a strong LLJ into the Ohio Valley region during the overnight
hours into Sunday. As this wind is mixed down with precip,
surface winds will increase Sunday to 15-20 MPH with gusts to 30
MPH.
By Sunday morning, much of the area should be seeing some much
needed rain; total QPF will fall between 0.7-1.0" with isolated
higher amounts. Despite this rainfall, much of the region will
still be in a deficit of several inches. Widespread rain moves
out Sunday late morning, leaving scattered showers moving
through during Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. High
temperatures on Sunday reach the mid 60s, but with rain and
wind, it won't be a very pleasant day to be outside.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will continue progressing east of the Ohio Valley
on Sunday night. Shower chances come to an end behind the front
and winds shift to the west. High pressure will skirt by to the
north of the area Monday through Tuesday night bringing cooler
temperatures and dry conditions. Despite the cool down in
temperatures, readings will still remain well above mid November
averages.
The next chance for rain develops Wednesday and Thursday when
another cold front is forecast to move through the area (still some
timing uncertainty). A brief surge of warmer, more humid air is
possible just ahead of the front on Wednesday before temperatures
drop once again. Temperatures may finally drop to near seasonal
averages behind the second front toward the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large surface high pressure system to build east across the
Great Lakes with mid and high level clouds increasing thru the
afternoon. Moisture to increase ahead of the next frontal system
with clouds lowering and rain overspreading the region from
west to east tonight. With dry air in place - there may be a few
light showers or virga this evening but the bulk of pcpn
arrives between 06-08Z.
Southerly low level jet of 45-50 KTS comes into play Sunday
morning and may offer a brief period of low level wind shear.
Moisture increases with CIGs quickly dropping thru MVFR
category and becoming IFR across the area Sunday.
Easterly winds around 10 knots with gusts as high as 20 kts today
will continue to slowly shift to the southeast and eventually
become southerly tonight. Expect southerly winds at 15 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts on Sunday.
OUTLOOK...Rain showers with MVFR/IFR conditions likely Sunday through
Monday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 1:42 PM EST---------------
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