MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 5:38 PM CST ...New AVIATION...442
FXUS64 KMOB 082338
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
538 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
MVFR to VFR conditions across the forecast area are expected through
tonight. Drier air has been slower to move over the area than
anticipated, with cloud cover hanging in longer than expected.
Latest guidance is indicating cloud cover finally breaking up
beginning later tonight into Saturday as Rafael moves over the
western Gulf of Mexico. Easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots will shift
to southeasterly around 10 knots on Saturday.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
Our region continues to remain located in between an upper-level
low over the central US and an upper ridge over the western
Atlantic and Florida Peninsula. Throughout the period, the upper
low will start to lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes
region, helping to nudge the upper ridge further into the
Atlantic. For the remainder of today, light, isolated showers will
continue to develop across our interior counties as a plume of
rich, tropical moisture slowly lifts north. Some drier mid to
upper level air is beginning to move in from southeast to
northwest as it wraps around the northern periphery of Hurricane
Rafael, located over the south central Gulf. This drier air should
help to erode away some of the cloud cover and lower rain chances
for tonight. By Saturday, several weak shortwaves look to round
the base of the upper low, passing from Louisiana, across
Mississippi, and into Tennessee. The best forcing from these
shortwaves looks to remain to the west of our local area, keeping
the highest rain coverage away from the area. However, due to the
proximity of these shortwaves, cannot rule out another round of
isolated to scattered showers and storms developing Saturday
afternoon mainly over our northwestern zones. The shortwave train
appears to shift closer to the local region by late Saturday night
and especially as we get into Sunday, and therefore, rain chances
increase from west to east during the overnight hours. Temperatures
will remain exceptionally warm for this time of year, with highs
in the low 80s and lows only in the mid to upper 60s inland to low
70s near the coast. A high risk of rip currents will continue
through the period. Additionally, a High Surf Advisory will also
be in effect through the period for surf heights up to 5-6 feet. /96
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
TC Rafael will still be likely be meandering around the west-central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, although will have weakened to a tropical
storm by that time. TC Rafael will continue to linger over the
central Gulf, or drift southward through the middle part of next
week, becoming a depression and then finally dissipating. High seas
offshore, rough surf and dangerous rip currents will likely continue
into the weekend and potentially even early next week along our area
beaches and adjacent Gulf waters.
For our local area, we will continue to be in a rather soggy pattern
as some of the moisture from Hurricane Rafael will be advected into
our area, and this combined with some slight overrunning and
shortwave energy aloft will result in at least scattered to possibly
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the area (with the
highest chances mainly north of west of I-65. Unfortunately what
rain we do get will probably do very little to chip away at our
current drought conditions. Rain potential continues through
late Monday, although less coverage expected.
Overall the remainder of the extended looks mostly rather dry
outside of the potential of a frontal passage around the mid to late
part week next week, but models are not in complete agreement with
this. For now will maintain the slight PoPs next week during the
Wednesday afternoon through very early Thursday morning time frame.
Cooler and drier air is expected toward the end of next week in the
wake of this front.
Highs generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s through most of the
extended period, but slightly cooler toward the end of the period
with highs only in the lower to upper 70s next by next Thursday and
Friday. Nighttime lows get progressively cooler through the period,
starting off in the low to mid 60s inland and the lower 70s coastal,
but dropping into the low to mid 40s inland and low to mid 50s
coastal by the end of next week. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
A moderate to occasionally strong easterly to southeasterly flow
will persist through Sunday. Swells from Hurricane Rafael will
bring hazardous seas of 6 to 9 feet to the Gulf waters through the
weekend. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday
morning, although this advisory may be extended through the
remainder of Sunday due to lingering hazardous seas. Winds
decrease to a light to moderate flow by Monday, with winds turning
offshore by Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas will also gradually
subside early next week. /96
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
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Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 5:38 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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