ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:44 AM EST426
FXUS61 KILN 091144
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
644 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move into the region bringing increasing clouds
throughout the day on Saturday. Rain showers arrive to the region Saturday
late night and continue through the remainder of the weekend. The area
dries out for the start of the work week and temperatures rebound to
slightly above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure located over the Great Lakes continues to dominate
our sensible weather for Saturday. The area remains dry with
high temperatures reaching the upper 50s/low 60s, right around
normal if not slightly above. However, the quiet weather is
short lived a 500H closed low in the Plains begins to occlude,
open up, and works its way east. Consequentially, high clouds
begin to overspread the region during Saturday afternoon,
gradually lowering into the evening, and winds shift to out of
the east/southeast. Worth noting that RH values will drop to the
low 30s east of I-75 in the dry air ahead of the warm front.
However, afternoon winds aren't forecast to have increased just
yet, so not anticipating too many fire weather concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
The area of surface high pressure will have progressed
southeast, settling over the Atlantic coastline, while the 500H
occluding low barrels into the Ohio Valley. Despite the low
occluding and opening up into the larger flow, its surface
features will still lift through the ILN CWA in the form of a
warm front, brief warm sector, then cold front from Saturday
night through Sunday night.
Precipitation arrives as early as Saturday evening. Some very
weak instability might allow for a rumble of thunder,
particularly south of the Ohio River, but otherwise should just
be rain showers. Overnight low temperatures into Sunday morning
fall to the mid 50s in the southwest where the warm sector will
be in place longer and upper 40s near central Ohio.
Despite the low occluding and opening up, this will still
create a tight pressure gradient between the low to the
northwest and the high to the southeast. This acts to introduce
a strong LLJ into the Ohio Valley region during the overnight
hours into Sunday. As this wind is mixed down with precip,
surface winds will increase Sunday to 15-20 MPH with gusts to 30
MPH.
By Sunday morning, much of the area should be seeing some much
needed rain; total QPF will fall between 0.7-1.0" with isolated
higher amounts. Despite this rainfall, much of the region will
still be in a deficit of several inches. Widespread rain moves
out Sunday late morning, leaving scattered showers moving
through during Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. High
temperatures on Sunday reach the mid 60s, but with rain and
wind, it won't be a very pleasant day to be outside.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will continue progressing east of the Ohio Valley
on Sunday night. Shower chances come to an end behind the front
and winds shift to the west. High pressure will skirt by to the
north of the area Monday through Tuesday night bringing cooler
temperatures and dry conditions. Despite the cool down in
temperatures, readings will still remain well above mid November
averages.
The next chance for rain develops Wednesday and Thursday when
another cold front is forecast to move through the area (still some
timing uncertainty). A brief surge of warmer, more humid air is
possible just ahead of the front on Wednesday before temperatures
drop once again. Temperatures may finally drop to near seasonal
averages behind the second front toward the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions to start the TAF period as high pressure
continues to move east over the Great Lakes. Easterly winds
around 10 knots today will continue to slowly shift to out of
the southeast and eventually out of the south by tonight, as the
high pressure slides east and is replaced by an incoming low.
High level clouds begin to spill into the region from the
southwest throughout the day on Saturday, gradually thickening
and lowering into Saturday evening.
Rain begins to overspread the region from west to east Saturday
night. Still some spread in the Hi-Res models with isolated
showers popping near western TAF sites as early as 02Z. Since
signal for these isolated showers isn't strong, chose to not
include in TAFs just yet. The bulk of the precip should arrive
between 6-8Z. There is a very slight chance for the odd rumble
of thunder, but primarily expecting rain showers. CIGs and VSBYs
drop with rain onset with CIGs quickly becoming IFR across the
western TAF sites near the end of the period. For now, have
dropped VSBYs to MVFR.
Winds begin to increase during the overnight hours as the system
pushes in. A low level jet is expected to ramp up somewhere
between the 07-12Z time frame on Sunday and some of these winds
will mix down to the surface. Expect southerly flow 10-12 knots
during early morning hours with higher gusts after sunrise
(shown in extended CVG TAF). Guidance hinted at some splotchy
LLWS, but signal isn't robust, so did not include it for now but
may be something to monitor.
OUTLOOK...Rain showers with MVFR/IFR conditions likely Sunday through
Monday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:44 AM EST---------------
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