BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 8:37 PM EST873
FXUS61 KBOX 070137
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
837 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gradual cooldown expected through the weekend. Isolated risk for a
spot shower across the Berkshires this evening will be the only
shower chance through Saturday. The remains uncertainty regarding a
potentially more robust precipitation event to round out the holiday
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
835 PM Update...
* Scattered clouds with overnight lows mainly in the 50s
Weak cold front crossing the region overnight will bring a
slightly cooler airmass into the region...but temps will still
be well above normal. Overnight low temps should bottom out in
the 50s. This will also be another dry frontal passage...but
some mid and high clouds will impact the region especially south
of the MA Turnpike.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Zonal flow develops behind the front for Thursday but do anticipate
above normal temperatures, ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, to
hang on for another day thanks to moderately warm temperatures aloft
(in the 7-8C range at 850mb) and more abundant sunshine. Gusty NW
winds possible again in the afternoon, but should peak at less
than 20 to 25 kt. NW winds will also usher in much drier air,
with dew points dropping into the 40s by tomorrow afternoon.
Trough dips south from Quebec late Thursday which will start a
gradual cooling trend into the overnight hours.
Fire weather concerns will remain given the very dry soils, though
not quite as elevated as Wednesday with a bit lighter gusts.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points...
* Dry Fri & Sat with temps trending cooler/more seasonable by Sat
* A period of rain remains possible sometime Sun into Mon
* Dry weather returns Tue/Wed with temps likely a bit above normal
Details...
Friday and Saturday...
A secondary dry cold front will cross the region on Fri...which will
be followed by large high pressure for Sat. This will result in dry
weather with a continued cool down. High temps on Fri will still be
a bit above normal with highs in the upper 50s to the middle 60s.
However...cooler air works in from the north behind the cold front
which will hold high temps Sat in the 50s. In fact...overnight low
temps Sat night into early Sun morning should allow many outline
locations to bottom out well down in the 20s.
Sunday and Monday...
High pressure moves east of the region on Sun as low pressure tracks
across the Great Lakes and into Quebec/northern New England Mon.
Still quite a bit of uncertainty...but the potential still exists
for a period of much needed rain sometime Sun into Mon. Since the
low pressure system and best forcing will pass to our north...how
much rain we get will depend on whether we can get at least a
secondary wave to pass closer to our region. This will determine if
we get enough backing of the lower level jet and better moisture
transport. The system is also running into a bit of a mid level
ridge axis...so that could tend to diminish the rain threat. At this
point...timing and potential rainfall amounts are quite a bit
uncertain. Early thinking is this probably will not be a big
rainfall event but there is the potential for some which would help.
We will just have to see how this evolves over the next day or
two...as EPS/GEPS still showing quite a bit of spread.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Mid level ridging and above normal heights build into the region Tue
into Wed. This will likely result in slightly above normal
temps...but temps probably will be tempered by onshore low level
flow given the position of high pressure. Still think a good chance
high temps break 60 Tue and Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z UPDATE...
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR cloud bases, potential for lower end ceilings of 040-060
around 13z/15z. Westerly winds 8-12 kts the first-half of the
night, then 4-8 kts the second-half.
Thursday and Thursday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. SCT to BKN 040-060 through 18z, otherwise clearing skies.
Winds are northwest winds 8-12 kts with gusts 18-22 kts 15z to
22z, winds ease after sunset to less 3-6 kts, slightly higher
near the coast at 10 kts.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/
Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
We dropped the small craft headlines for all but the southern
waters this evening...where the seas remained elevated. Even
this lingering 5 foot swell should subside by daybreak Thursday.
Some 20+ knot wind gusts from the NW are expected Thursday...but
winds/seas should generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The prolonged period of dry weather coupled with a very dry ground
will continue to result in elevated fire weather concerns on
Thursday. Plenty of sunshine is expected Thursday with afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Northwest
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are expected. Minimum afternoon
relative humidity values are expected to range between 40 and 50
percent.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Previous Record highs for Wednesday, November 6th
Boston: 76F set in 2022
Hartford: 76F set in 2022
Providence: 75F set in 2022
Worcester: 72F set in 2022
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guest
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Guest
LONG TERM...Guest
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...Frank/Guest
FIRE WEATHER...Frank/KS
CLIMATE...Frank/KS
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 8:37 PM EST----------------
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