NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Nov 8, 12:00 AM CST734
WTNT43 KNHC 080559
TCDAT3
Hurricane Rafael Special Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap
deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud
tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in
the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates
have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100
to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these
estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required
the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning.
The initial motion is 280/8 kt, and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as
Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. There were no
changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory.
Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and
warm sea surface temperature, which has allowed the current
intensification to occur. Additional strengthening is possible
today, and the latest NHC forecast was adjusted in the short term
through 36 h given the current higher intensity. After that,
westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not
likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the
circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the
latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near
the consensus aids beyond 48 h.
Key Messages:
1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.
2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Nov 8, 12:00 AM CST---------------
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