PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 12:54 PM CST718
FXUS63 KPAH 091854
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1254 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will increase tonight
into Sunday, before their departure Sunday PM. Upwards to 2
inches storm total rainfall is possible over portions of
southern Kentucky, with lesser amounts to the northwest.
- Seasonally mild temperatures with 60s and 70s covers the
entirety of the forecast, with the next chance of rain
incoming by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
A low pressure storm system will lift from the Central Plains
to the Great Lakes by this time tomorrow. There is enough
moisture (ample), instability (minimal), and lift (moderate) to
keep our slight chance of thunder mention, but the primary
consideration is rainfall. Up to 2 inches of storm total
rainfall is still a possibility for portions of southern Ky,
with the heaviest banding late tonight into early Sunday
morning. Lesser amounts, even to minimal amounts, are possible
further northwest.
The system continues to lift and trek to the east and northeast
with time, as high pressure fills in its wake. This will draw in
drier air and end our pops west-to-east late tmrw pm/evening.
With a zonal flow, there is no exceptionally "cold" airmass
incoming with the high, so max temperatures will actually
rebound into the lower 70s tmrw as things clear out. We go a
little more northerly with the flow around the high early in the
work week, so nighttime temps cool down to the 40s and the
diurnal rebound yields a returns highs in the 60s, but they
still run seasonal or even a little above seasonal norms leading
to our next chance of pcpn incoming by mid week. It's a quick
mid week system passage with dry conditions returning and
seasonally mild temperatures continuing to finish out the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
Time/height cross sections show a dry lower tropospheric column
that will gradually saturate as the approaching storm system
nears and ultimately makes its passage. We'll see bases
deteriorate into/thru restricted categories as top-down
saturation of the column continues through tonight, with
associated/increasing shower activity likewise producing VSBY
restrictions. By late tonight, Instrument Flight Rules CIGS are
forecast with Marginal Visual Flight Rules VSBYS, although
further restrictions are possible in heavier showers. The
thunder risk is low enough to preclude from terminal mention,
but it is not zero. The system clears the 2nd half of the day
tmrw from the northwest, so expect maybe only KMVN seeing bases
scatter to VFR by the close of the 18Z forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 12:54 PM CST---------------
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