PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 3:30 AM CST414
FXUS63 KPAH 090930
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
330 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will overspread the
Quad State today, then exit Sunday afternoon. The heaviest
rains are expected over west Kentucky late tonight into Sunday
morning. Some isolated amounts over 2 inches are possible.
- Mild conditions will continue through the work week.
- A few showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening, mainly over the northern portions of the Quad State.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
An occluded storm system over extreme western Kansas early this
morning will lift northeast and reach the Great Lakes by late
Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will keep winds from the
east southeast today, but they will become southerly tonight and
eventually southwesterly Sunday. Low-level moisture will
increase across the Quad State through Sunday morning and then
decrease from the west Sunday afternoon and evening.
An area of showers has already begun to stream northward across
far western portions of southeast Missouri early this morning.
This shower activity will slowly spread eastward across the
Quad State through this evening, as the occluded system lifts
northeast. Instability will be extremely limited and there will
be little low-level convergence to support thunderstorms.
However, we will maintain a slight chance of storms through this
evening just to be on the safe side.
Late tonight some weak surface convergence does set up where
winds go from southerly to southwesterly initially from far
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. It will shift
eastward Sunday morning, and wash out by afternoon, as winds
become southwesterly throughout the area. Low-level moisture
will be maximized just ahead of this boundary, which will lead
to somewhat better instability and chance of thunderstorms. With
all evidence pointing to precipitable water values of
1.5"-1.75" from north to south across the region at that time,
very efficient rainfall is expected.
WPC's stormtotal QPF for the weekend ranges from a half inch
over much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois to around
an inch over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Narrow bands
of higher amounts (1.5"-2") will be possible where thunderstorms
can survive which should mainly be over west Kentucky Sunday
morning. These amounts should not result in any significant
flooding issues.
There is some concern about the robustness of the low-level
moisture return, given the presence of Rafael in the Gulf of
Mexico. It could rob our area of the best moisture. Perhaps the
00Z HREF and Grand Ensemble are reflecting that possibility, as
they both indicate very little chance of 2+" of rainfall, and
barely a 50% chance of 1+". The bottom line is that rainfall
amounts may trend downward from the current forecast levels.
The rainfall should come to an end from west to east Sunday
afternoon, leaving mostly dry conditions for the upcoming work
week. High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep the
first half of the week dry, with continued mild conditions.
There is some spread in the 00Z guidance with a storm system
moving east across northern tier of the country Wednesday into
Wednesday night. In general, it appears that guidance is
trending drier for our area, but the NBM keeps some small PoPs
for showers mainly across the northern half of the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening. QPF is very light. More high
pressure is expected behind this system, leading to dry weather
for the second half of the work week.
Temperatures next week should generally see 60s for highs and
40s for lows. The possible exceptions would be some lower 70s on
Wednesday and some upper 30s Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
VFR conditions continue into the morning as high clouds spread
overhead. A stray sprinkle may reach the ground. Winds shift
from easterly towards southerly throughout the forecast period.
Showers move northeastward into the Quad State tomorrow,
becoming widespread late afternoon through the evening. Cigs
lower to MVFR and then IFR with vsbys lower in heavier rain. A
few thunderstorms are possible, with the best chance in the late
afternoon to early evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...ATL
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 3:30 AM CST---------------
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