LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:45 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...173
FXUS63 KLMK 091145
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
645 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* After a dry start to the weekend, widespread rain is forecast for
Saturday evening through Sunday. 1 to 1.5" of rain expected for
most.
* Dry early next week, with the next chance for rain arriving
midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
Currently, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes is stretching
south through the Lower Ohio Valley, and above that, an upper level
ridge runs directly over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Normally this would make for calm weather under clear skies. The
calm weather is in place, but due to the CWA sitting downstream of a
low pressure system over the Plains, broken high level cloud cover
streams overhead.
Today, the aforementioned low pressure system will get pushed
northeast by upper flow towards the Midwest. The system will drag
its trailing cold front towards the Mississippi River Valley. Ahead
of this front, moisture from the south will be pushed northward
above 850mb, and as the system heads towards the CWA, rain chances
will begin to increase. Model soundings continue to show lots of dry
air initially around and below 700mb, so believe as this moisture
begins to work to the northeast into central Kentucky, virga will be
likely this afternoon. It could take some time before rain or very
much of it makes it to the ground. Soundings also show a fairly
stable environment, so believe this will mainly be a rain event with
little in the way of thunder. High temperatures are expected to
reach the mid 60s across southern Indiana and taper up to the mid
70s in and around Clinton County. With the high to the north, winds
will remain out of the east for most of the day.
Tonight, as the system continues pushing farther northeast towards
the Great Lakes, upper flow pushes the surface high, currently over
the Great Lakes, southeast towards the Atlantic Coast. This will
cause winds over the CWA, to shift towards the south, bringing in
strong warm air advection with winds increasing later in the night
to 10-13 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. This will also help to
saturate the atmosphere, resulting in widespread rainfall.
Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
Sunday continues to look rainy. A potent mid/upper level shortwave
trough and associated sfc low are forecast to begin the period over
IA/MN and lift northeast over MI by evening. At 12-18Z Sunday, the
warm conveyor belt and 45+ kt SW LLJ/deep moisture plume will be
right over central KY and southern IN, with the cold front still off
to the west moving through the MS River Valley. Expect numerous
moderate rain showers in the region through the morning and
afternoon hours, with occasional brief breaks in the action. There
is a slight chance for an isolated rumble of thunder, but even
elevated instability will be very meager. Much of the stronger LLJ
winds aloft won't be able to mix down to the surface, but expect
breezy southerly winds with gusts of 20-30 mph.
Rain showers will become a lot more scattered in nature by evening
as the cold front pushes through and drier air advects in from the
west. Rain chances then shut off from NW to SE Sunday night in the
wake of the front. 24-hr rainfall totals of 0.3-0.7 inches will be
possible through Sunday night. As for storm totals, there is a 50%
or greater chance for more than an inch of rain in central KY. 1
inch rainfall probabilities taper off north of the Ohio River. Highs
Sunday will reach 65-70 F, with lows Monday morning ranging from the
low/mid 40s in southern IN to the lower 50s near Lake Cumberland.
Stratus will be much slower to clear Sunday night in the
southeastern forecast area.
Early next week still looks very pleasant. Ridging at the sfc and
aloft builds east across much of the eastern United States. Skies
will remain mainly clear with a lot of dry air in place. Highs
Monday will range through the 60s, and Tuesday looks just a touch
cooler in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Morning lows will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s Tue and Wed.
An upper level trough is forecast to reach the central CONUS by
midweek. Ensemble members have begun to cluster around a more
progressive, slightly less amplified solution. The resulting weaker
low pressure system in the latest deterministic guidance takes a
northerly track across the northern Plains and Great Lakes, with
less moisture return and lower QPF for the Lower OH Valley. Even
modest SW return flow will, however, boost temperatures to around 70
degrees Wednesday. Will maintain a chance for rain for the Wednesday
afternoon - Thursday morning period, but overall rain chances and
amounts have decreased. The weather looks quiet and dry for the end
of the week with high pressure building back into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
VFR conditions will last through the day, but tonight, a cold front
will push showers towards the TAF sites, resulting in MVFR and
possible IFR conditions. The precipitation will first have to
overcome dry air before reaching the surface. The latest data has
continued to delay the lower ceilings and reduced visibilities. This
has been a trend over the last 24 hours or so. Believe this is due
to the dry air ahead of the advancing precipitation. Was hesitant to
drop ceilings too much in the 6-12z window tonight because of the
improvements in the latest data.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:45 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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