BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 7:27 PM EST207
FXUS61 KBOX 060027
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
727 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Potentially record breaking warmth peaks on Wednesday as blustery
conditions develop, with a dry cold frontal passage during the
Wednesday evening hours. Drier weather continues Thursday
through Saturday, although temperatures well be gradually
cooling off toward more seasonable levels by Saturday. We are
still monitoring the potential for a welcomed rain event around
Sunday or Monday, but the details are still highly uncertain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
640 PM Update:
Hourly temps have been running a couple degrees warmer than
prior indications with the SW winds keeping temps from falling
very much. Most areas are still well into the the 60s at this
hour! Ended up incorporating some of the bias-corrected HRRR
temps into the forecast, but these changes overall are pretty
minor and reflect a slower fall in temps. Will have to watch a
layer of stratus clouds south of Long Island and more
specifically its spatial covg as we move into the overnight;
HREF suggests this cloud layer will expand in coverage, but
looking at satellite, that has yet to materialize.
Previous discussion:
Mild night ahead across southern New England tonight. Lows are
expected to sit in the 50s across the region. It's possible some
spots could hit the lower 60s as well. Clouds have continued to
clear out of the area, and mostly clear skies are expected tonight,
aside from along the south coast into the Cape and Islands. Some
stratus could settle over those areas tonight. Winds are expected to
remain SW with gusts up to 20 kt through tonight as a low level jet
sits overhead and the pressure gradient tightens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update:
After coordination with our state fire weather partners, we have
issued Red Flag Warnings for CT, MA and RI from 8 AM to 6 PM
Wednesday. Relative humidities are still going to be around 45
to 50 percent regionally, however the lack of rain has led to
the ground being susceptible to fire starts and the stronger SW
winds for Wednesday may favor brush fire development.
Previous discussion from 230 PM:
General flow will shift from the SW to more westerly as tomorrow
progresses. Highs tomorrow could overachieve and we could see some
records being broken or met. Temperatures aloft--sitting around +15C
at 850 mb--with the downslope westerly flow will help bring surface
temps up to these near record to record levels, with highs in the
70s for much of the area. Some could see close to 80, particularly
in the CT Valley. To capture this, I blended in the 75th percentile
NBM with the NBM.
Blustery conditions are possible across the region, even as the
strongest part of the jet is still expected to move east around 12z.
Sustained winds are expected to be around 10 to 15 kt, gusting up to
30 kt in some areas during the daytime hours. With these windy and
continually dry conditions, fire weather will remain a concern once
more. A Red Flag Warning may be needed for tomorrow.
Winds are expected to drop off tomorrow night once the jet moves
away from southern New England and a cold front moves through. This
is expected to be yet another dry passage, so no rain is anticipated
with this front.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
* Gradual cooldown Thurs and Fri, although temperatures still will
be above normal.
* Trend toward seasonable temperatures and continued dry weather Sat.
* Still monitoring a potential rain event either Sun and/or into Mon.
Thursday:
Cold front from Wed night will have pushed well offshore by early
Thurs AM, with a returning ridge of high pressure bringing WNW
breezes (gusts to around 20 mph) and dry weather. Cold advection
behind the front is more modest with a more gradual cooldown in
lower-level temperatures (925 mb temps falling to around +9 to +11C
during the daytime, to then around +4 to +6C for the nighttime/early
Fri AM). Full sun should support another mild day, although less-
above-normal temperatures in the 60s to spot low 70s. With trends
toward more nighttime breezes, lows in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s.
Friday and Saturday:
Gradual cooldown continues into Fri, although high pressure will
still support dry weather and full sun, with highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. These are still slightly above normal for early
November.
However into Fri night, another dry cold frontal passage associated
with a frontal system moving through the interior Northeast will
herald a more substantial cooldown along with increased NW breezes.
Our 925 mb temps fall to 0 to -2C by 12z Sat, but with the NW
breezes post frontal, still looking at lows in the mid 30s to around
40 in most locations.
Blustery and cooler, more seasonable weather conditions return for
Sat, though it will continue to be a dry day as high pressure ridges
into the region. Highs on Sat mainly in the mid 50s, with lows in
the 30s for Sat night.
Sunday and Monday:
Still monitoring the potential for welcomed rainfall in the Sunday
to Mon timeframe as a strong closed low moves northeast into the Gt
Lakes and northern New England. While it still looks as though
deeper moisture arrives with rising precipitable water values to
near 1.5 inches, with a potential Gulf moisture connection from what
is TC Raphael. QPF amounts still vary widely across the ensembles as
well as the deterministic solutions, but this still looks to be the
next more favorable opportunity for much needed rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight: Moderate Confidence.
VFR, but may see some MVFR ceilings develop towards the south
coast and perhaps parts of the high terrain. Could see some LIFR
ceilings and vsby reductions for the Cape and Islands. The
other concern will be for LLWS across all terminals with a
modest southerly LLJ developing. SW winds of 10 to 15 knots with
some 20+ knot gusts near the coast and in the high terrain
tonight.
Wednesday: High confidence.
Mainly VFR. SW winds around 15 knots with gusts of 25 to 30
knots possible in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: High confidence.
VFR. SW winds early Wed night become W and decrease to around
5-10 kt overnight.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF. VFR with SW winds around
10-12 kt tonight. Low level wind shear is likely after 03z Wed,
which should continue until we start seeing stronger gusts on
Wednesday (up to 25 kt).
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with SW winds around 10
kt tonight. Low level wind shear is likely after 03z Wed,
which should continue until we start seeing stronger gusts on
Wednesday (in the low 20s kt range).
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
SCAs continue in effect on the southern waters currently, and
will be adding the eastern waters late overnight into Wed with
the expected increase in gusty SW winds. Gusts to 25-30 kt are
expected on most waters on Wed, then will begin to decrease into
Wed night as a low-level jetcore moves further offshore. For Wed
night, expect westerly winds decreasing to around 10-15 kt.
Seas will be building tonight into Wed to around 4-7 ft on the
outer waters, then decrseasing into Wed night.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The protracted stretch of dry weather will continue to lead to
elevated concerns for wildfire development until we can get a
substantial wetting rain event. Relative humidities should range
between 50-70 percent Tuesday with gusty southwest winds
developing.
With a lack of significant rain expected over the next several
days, Special Weather Statements are likely to be needed through
this week coinciding with periods where winds are on the lighter
side. Consideration will be given towards Red Flag Warnings to
highlight a greater threat for wildfire development and spread
when and where there are sufficiently strong winds. Wednesday
could meet that wind speed criterion, but those decisions will
be coordinated beforehand with our state fire weather partners
on a day-to-day basis.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Previous Record highs for Wednesday, November 6th
Boston: 76F set in 2022
Hartford: 76F set in 2022
Providence: 75F set in 2022
Worcester: 72F set in 2022
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ230-236-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ231>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto
FIRE WEATHER...Loconto/Hrencecin
CLIMATE...
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 7:27 PM EST----------------
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