CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 9:41 PM EST212
FXUS61 KCLE 080241
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
941 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Plains will extend into the region
tonight and Friday before becoming centered over the Great
Lakes Saturday. Low pressure will track from the Upper Midwest
through the northern Great Lakes Sunday lifting a warm front
across the region before the cold front crosses Sunday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
The forecast remains on track and there were no needed changes
with this update.
630 PM Update...
A quiet evening is being observed across the area with
temperatures lingering in the upper 40s to low 50s. With
increased radiational cooling overnight, temperatures are still
expected to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s tonight. In some
areas, especially throughout valleys, temperatures may decrease
enough for patchy fog to develop. Opted to add patchy fog across
the southeastern tier of counties with this update, but with
overall marginal conditions and winds expected to increase near
daybreak Friday, not expecting anything widespread.
Previous Discussion...
A quiet and seasonably cool end to the week is expected as high
pressure builds into the region. This elongated area of surface
high pressure is currently centered over the central Plains and
Mid Mississippi Valley, and surface ridging along its eastern
periphery will build into the region tonight and Friday while
the center of the high does not move much. This will maintain a
broad swath of fair weather from the heart of the Midwest
through the southern Great Lakes. Lingering lake-effect clouds
continue to erode from north to south this afternoon as drier
air works into the region, and expect skies to be mostly clear
areawide by 00Z. This will set up decent radiational cooling
overnight with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s, although this is
still pretty mild for this time of year. Mostly sunny skies will
result in a milder day Friday with highs in the upper 50s/low
60s.
Friday night, a glancing blow of cold air will drop through the
eastern Great Lakes and New England as a northern stream
mid/upper trough swings into the region. The cold pool aloft
will be just east of the region as the center of the surface
high shifts into the central Great Lakes, but expect a colder
night with lows in the low/mid 30s. Could see some W to SW winds
gusting to 20-25 knots ahead of the trough/cold front Friday
afternoon and evening before turning NW and quickly decreasing
Friday night. Lake-effect clouds are possible in NE Ohio and NW
PA, but expect the airmass to be too dry with subsidence as
well, so no precip is expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will provide for quiet and calm weather Saturday. Low
pressure over the Plains on Saturday will lift across the Upper
Midwest and into northern Michigan Saturday night and Sunday. A warm
front ahead of this low will lift through the area Sunday morning,
quickly followed by a cold front Sunday evening into Sunday night.
Precipitable water values will climb to 1.25 to 1.50" on Sunday,
which is nearing 3 standard deviations above climatological normal
for the date. This anomalously moist airmass, coupled with a brief
period of strong lift beneath coupled jet support moving across the
area during the day Sunday, should yield an area-wide wetting rain
moving in from the west pre-dawn Sunday and sweeping across the area
through the day. The greatest intensity of rain is expected on the
nose of a strong southwesterly low-level jet. Forecast rainfall
amounts currently are in the 0.40 to 0.80" range across most of the
area, with probabilities for over 1.00" between 10-30% per most
recent national blended (NBM) ensemble guidance. Rain exits to the
east late Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front sweeps through.
Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 50s, with near 60 possible
towards Findlay. Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the 40s, with
a few 30s possible in far Northeast OH/Northwest PA. Highs on Sunday
will generally be in the low to mid 60s, with clouds and rain
expected to keep temperatures in check a bit. Lows Sunday night
generally settle into the 40s, with near 50 along the lakeshore. It
will be breezy on Sunday beneath a strong low-level jet, though
limited mixing should keep gusts under 40 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The first half of next week will be fairly quiet in the weather
department. A few lake effect rain showers are possible Monday in
seasonable westerly flow behind Sunday night's cold front. A
shortwave and secondary cold front move through Monday evening,
bringing a brief push of chillier air and turning winds more
northwesterly. Lake effect/enhanced shower chances briefly expand
Monday night. A surface ridge axis moves through Tuesday and Tuesday
night with dry and quiet weather. Low pressure takes shape over the
central U.S. around Wednesday, moving east-northeast towards the
Great Lakes or Ohio Valley on Thursday. The track, intensity, and
timing of this low are quite variable on extended ensembles. Either
way, have rain chances in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday.
Current impression is that Wednesday could end up dry, though enough
ensemble members have some rain to keep in the low (30-40%) POPs
for now, with higher POPs Wednesday night into Thursday. Temps will
be a bit warmer than average next week with some fluctuations.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Conditions have rebounded to VFR across the area this evening
with mostly clear skies being observed. These conditions are
expected to remain predominant for all terminals through this
period, although there is a non-zero chance for some patchy fog
near the KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG terminals. Confidence is higher
within the valleys of the area, however given the weak winds
overnight and increased radiational cooling, it is possible that
these terminals may briefly be reduced to MVFR. With low
confidence at this point, opted to not include the mention in
any of the TAFs, but will continue to monitor. Any fog that does
develop should quickly erode near sunrise as winds increase and
temperatures warm.
The more notable impact to terminals will be the gusty winds
ahead of an approaching cold front and associated LLJ of 35-45
knots across the area on Friday. Light and variable winds
tonight will increase to 12-15 knots from the west by Friday
afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. Near the end of
this TAF period, winds will begin to decrease and shift more
northerly at 5-10 knots and diminishing gusts.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers and low ceilings
Sunday through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front drops across Lake Erie on Friday. Westerly flow begins
picking up ahead of the front tonight, shifting northerly behind the
front on Friday and then more northeasterly Friday night as high
pressure starts building in from the northwest. Winds over the
central and eastern basin will be 15-25 knots overnight tonight into
Friday ahead of the front, gradually weakening Friday night. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued from Vermilion, OH points east for
late tonight through most of Friday night. Winds of 15-20 knots are
expected west of the Small Craft Advisory. East-northeast flow will
subside to 15 knots or less Saturday, shifting more southerly
Saturday night. South-southwest winds increase to 15-25 knots ahead
of a cold front on Sunday, shifting west-southwest and remaining 15-
25 knots into Monday. This Sunday into Monday timeframe will be the
next timeframe to monitor for Small Craft Advisories.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for
LEZ145-146.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 9:41 PM EST---------------
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