ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 9:44 PM EST214
FXUS61 KILN 070244
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
944 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers may linger on Thursday as a front stalls near the
Ohio River. Dry weather takes over areawide on Friday as high
pressure settles over the Great Lakes. The next low pressure and
chance for rain arrives to the region on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface boundary apparent on Microphysics imagery is slowly
moving southeast... located near the I-71 corridor at this time.
Ahead of the boundary, wind field has collapsed and overcast
skies blanket the region. Behind the boundary there is a light
northwest breeze to 10 mph and clouds are patchy and generally
of a stratocumulus type. Dry conditions will continue through
the night for all except far south-central Ohio into northeast
Kentucky. There, an impulse moving along the old cold front
currently located near the Ohio River will initiate rain
showers late tonight, likely ending around sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front weakens south of the area Thursday morning, with
northerly flow provided by surface high pressure off to the
west. Increased cloud cover behind the cold front with
lingering moisture supporting cloud growth through the mid
morning and early afternoon. Eventually, drier air will help to
reduce sky cover during the evening hours. Given the northerly
flow and sky cover, high temperatures will be about 10 degrees
cooler, but still only around normal for early November.
High pressure continues to nose in from the west during the
evening with overnight temperatures dropping into the 30s and
lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Split upper level flow regime with surface high pressure
building across the region for the end of the week. This high
will offer dry weather conditions.
Focus shifts to mid/upper level low that weakens as it tracks
northeast across the Plains and thru the Great Lakes this
weekend. Moisture to increase ahead of a warm front lifting
northeast across the region Saturday night. This will offer an
increased chance for rain with a chance for some embedded
thunder Sunday ahead of a surface cold front.
The region dries out Monday as high pressure builds into the
area in the wake of cold front. Dry conditions continue into
Tuesday as the high moves off to the east. A threat for rain
returns later Wednesday with the approach of the next frontal
system.
Above normal temperatures to continue with highs generally in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
03Z update: Conditions have slowly improved overnight, so have
amended the southern TAF sites near Cincinnati and also at
Wilmington. The patchy stratocumulus field over the rest of our
terminals is currently VFR with a few scattered areas dropping
a bit below 3,000 feet. Have made no changes at DAY or Columbus
for now due to uncertainty, but will need to monitor for the
rest of the night.
00Z TAF discussion: While the surface cold front has slowly
drifted through the TAF sites this evening, light southwesterly
flow just above the surface will keep stratus around a bit
longer. Main uncertainty here is the exact location and progress
of the front/drying aloft. With VFR conditions at DAY and the
Columbus terminals, have opted to keep this VFR with the drier
air already in place. However, for the Cincinnati and Wilmington
terminals, the VFR ceilings will be a bit delayed due to a weak
perturbation lifting northeast along the surface front near the
Ohio River later tonight. At this point, it appears most sites
will improve to VFR (or near VFR) by sunrise.
For Thursday, the mid-level trough will cause a band of
stratocumulus clouds with around 2,000 foot bases to develop
across west-central and northern Ohio. Have less confidence in
whether these will drift across our northern terminals, so have
just hinted at their presence at DAY with a scattered deck.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs may persist into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 9:44 PM EST---------------
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