PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 9:13 PM EST244
FXUS61 KPBZ 070213
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
913 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will continue south of Pittsburgh through early
Thursday morning. High pressure then settles in and yields a
return to calm, dry and warm through Saturday. Rain to return by
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Isolated to scattered showers, mainly south of PIT
- Cold front crosses tonight
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A cold front was located acorss NW PA through Nrn OH. Most of
the available moisture for any showers has shifted south of PIT,
so removed POPs elsewhere. The 00Z PIT sounding shows shallow
moisture in the lower levels, with additional moisture/clouds
aloft above 500mb.
A few showers will be possible south of PIT as the front crosses
tonight, though shower coverage and rainfall amounts should be
minimal without upper support for lift. Clouds just behind the
front should decrease, and there could be some patchy fog in
some locations, before stratocu fills back in under cool NW
flow. Lows will be cooler than last night, though still 15 to 20
degrees above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and more seasonable beginning Thursday
- Overnight radiative cooling will yield chilly fall-like
mornings
-------------------------------------------------------------------
By daybreak on Thursday the cold front is expected to be near or
just south of the area with possible light showers remaining along
the mountains and in northern West Virginia. Winds remain rather
light and from the northwest. Cloud cover then slowly disperses
from north to south as cool air settles in and winds along the lake
shift to westerly. Despite the cooler air mass, temperatures are
still likely to be 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Diminished cloud cover and light winds will allow for efficient
radiative cooling Thursday night. The limiting factor in how low
temperatures get is likely to be how low dew points get in mixing
Thursday afternoon.
Above average warmth continues Friday paired with largely clear
skies. More efficient mixing Friday could yield a return to gusty
conditions with many areas north of I-70 featuring a >50% chance to
see gusts over 20mph. Lower dewpoints, light winds and clear skies
combine to yield good radiative cooling Friday night and the chance
to start our Saturday near the freezing mark in the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
- Dry and warmer than average Saturday
- Rain returns Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday continues a similar warm and dry story before high pressure
begins to fleet ahead of an approaching trough kicking out of the
Four Corners and moving northeast. Cloud cover increases Saturday
night and precipitation chances increase from West to East early on
Sunday. Clustered members of the long-range ensembles show rain
totals between 0.25-0.50 inches on Sunday before POPs decline
through Monday. There still exists the chance for this trough to
draw tropical moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. However, it
seems likely that most of this moisture would be pinched off to the
southwest of our area and probabilities of >1.00 inch of rain (10-
20% in Ohio) have not drastically increased.
After this, ensemble solutions diverge quickly yielding a muddy
picture of the early to middle of next week. Most clustered
members show a pattern featuring a western CONUS trough and
eastern CONUS ridge but the similarities end there. Members
disagree heavily on the timing and amplitude of these waves.
At this time, it seems possible that the area returns to dry,
unseasonably warm and calm conditions early next week before a low
could return rain chances during the middle of next week. However,
there is still a lot of clarity to come on this or any solution.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stalled frontal boundary to our northwest continues to provide
warm, moist conditions across our region and increase low-level
cloud coverage. Confidence is high that MVFR conditions will
continue for a number of sites during the 00Z to 12Z time
period. Brief periods of VFR and IFR conditions can't be ruled
out with the advancement of the cold front during the early
morning hours.
Light drizzle/rain could be observed briefly at TAF sites.
However, MGW/LBE have the highest probability of measurable
precip (above 55%).
Improvements to widespread VFR appear likely between 17Z to 19Z
Thursday as the cold front advances into central West Virginia
and mid-level dry air returns.
.Outlook...
Fog potential increases early Friday morning due to light winds,
lingering low-lvl moisture, and clearing sky. FKL/DUJ will
likely see vis restrictions of IFR/LIFR. However, sites as far
south as HLG,AGC, and LBE may observe impacts as well.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Hefferan/88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 9:13 PM EST---------------
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