ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:32 PM EST328
FXUS61 KILN 062032
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
332 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers may linger on Thursday as a front stalls near the
Ohio River. Dry weather takes over areawide on Friday as high
pressure settles over the Great Lakes. The next low pressure and
chance for rain arrives to the region on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Much of the deeper showers and periods of light rain have
shifted off to the south and east of the area, however, low-
level convergence within an area of modest moisture is
resulting in occasional drizzle along the I-71 corridor.
Altered weather wording to match the latest radar trends. This
activity gradually shifts to the south as the cold front slowly
moves southward.
Drier northwesterly flow increases this evening behind the
boundary, ushering in cooler temperatures for overnight across
much of the area. The only area excluded is the Ohio River
region and northern Kentucky where mid 50s linger. Additional
showers are forecast to develop across this same area overnight
as, but the better coverage should remain south of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front weakens south of the area Thursday morning, with
northerly flow provided by surface high pressure off to the
west. Increased sky cover behind the cold front with lingering
moisture supporting cloud growth through the mid morning and
early afternoon. Eventually, drier air will help to reduce sky
cover during the evening hours. Given the northerly flow and sky
cover, high temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler, but
still only around normal for early November.
High pressure continues to nose in from the west during the
evening with overnight temperatures dropping into the 30s and
lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Split upper level flow regime with surface high pressure
building across the region for the end of the week. This high
will offer dry weather conditions.
Focus shifts to mid/upper level low that weakens as it tracks
northeast across the Plains and thru the Great Lakes this
weekend. Moisture to increase ahead of a warm front lifting
northeast across the region Saturday night. This will offer an
increased chance for rain with a chance for some embedded
thunder Sunday ahead of a surface cold front.
The region dries out Monday as high pressure builds into the
area in the wake of cold front. Dry conditions continue into
Tuesday as the high moves off to the east. A threat for rain
returns later Wednesday with the approach of the next frontal
system.
Above normal temperatures to continue with highs generally in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Throughout the morning and into the early afternoon, a corridor
of IFR/MVFR CIGs and VIS has occurred from CMH to DAY. Expect
this to linger for a couple more hours to begin the TAF period.
Otherwise, MVFR CIGs remain at all other TAF sites. Throughout
the TAF, some periods of improvement to VFR are expected, but
the exact timing details of these improvements are made with low
confidence. Adjustments may be needed based on
observation/satellite trends.
As the front drifts southward after 00Z, expect a wind shift
from westerly to northwesterly and then eventually northerly by
12Z Thursday. Winds will be between 5 and 10 knots. While there
may be some improvement in CIGs around 12Z, a new period of MVFR
CIGs may develop during the mid morning (14-16Z) and continue
into the afternoon behind the front. For DAY/CMH/LCK,
confidence is higher so MVFR restrictions are forecast. To the
south, the CIG mention was limited to SCT due to lower
confidence.
Once the light rain clears the I-71 corridor later this
afternoon, only widely scattered showers are expected around
the TAF sites. This includes the activity moving through the
Ohio River region overnight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs may persist into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:32 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
