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116 FXUS64 KLIX 060941AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA341 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024Much stronger agreement in model solutions out 72 hours. Out of the main two synoptic model suites(GFS/EURO), the Euro has been initializing the best with the global field for the last 3 days, especially the H3 jet level. And we are now seeing most guidance beginning to bend toward its solution. The higher resolution models like the NAM are doing the same as well. Nuisance coastal flooding will continue each morning at high tide. We will issue another advisory for this tonight but these numbers are slowly lowering but even the 10th percentile numbers are slightly above flood criteria. This will likely stop lowering and begin rising in the next few days even if Rafael stays farther south of our shoreline, which is looking more likely with time. The reason for this continuation is due to the pressure gradient between Rafael and the strong high ridging into the gulf south. This interaction would cause a moderate dynamic fetch to set up on the order of around 20kt or better into our shorelines. This may just be coastal flood advisories but can't rule out a warning sometime between Thu and the weekend.Fog is looking less likely this morning as cloud decks came in at and above 1kft. But the cold front to our west has stalled and this sets the stage for advective fog ahead of it. The normal way we get this is from air moving over the nearshore cold gulf waters chilling it to its fog point. Since we don't have those well chilled waters, this will need to rely on cloud decks forming and moving in below 1kft. We will have to watch this again as where these decks form will be important and like yesterday, this would not be known until this evening at the earliest.&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024Since the Euro has been initializing much better than all other global models, these other models have been moving toward its solution and the fcast for Rafael has followed suite and continues to be taken farther away from our shoreline. Eventhough this may be the case, we will be looking at this system on the map for several days as it moves into the east central gulf and gets bent west then slows as it gets in to the central gulf where it could get left behind once again. If this were to occur, it would just be an impact to mainly marine areas. But there is a good possibility that tide levels will be high enough to keep some threat of coastal flooding in the fcast. By the later part of the extended, this system begins to get shreaded by the strong westerlies if it is still around 25N or farther north. Guidance is beginning to bend this deeper into the gulf and if this occurs, it would be able to keep some strength a bit longer. Either way, there is a very strong upper trough that develops by the start of next week which digs rapidly sending a cold front through the area by Thu(give or take a day). If Rafael, or what is left of it is still wondering around the gulf, this trough would definitely either destroy it or pick whatever is left of it up.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024MVFR to IFR cigs should be found at the majorty of sites this morning. RA probs are not high enough for any prevailing groups and most if not all sites will stay dry today. Cigs should rise by mid morning to VFR levels. Tonight will show all sites going to IFR or lower due to cigs and possibly vis.&&.MARINE...Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024Winds will remain on the low side today and tonight. There is still expected impacts to our open gulf waters which could be in the simple form of swell or worse. Even if Rafael does not move into our waters, the pressure gradient between it and the strong high to its north will cause easterly winds to rise to around 20kt or a bit higher by late Thu into the weekend. Flags will likely be raised during that time frame even if not tropical flags.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 84 68 84 69 / 10 10 20 20 BTR 88 71 88 73 / 20 10 10 20 ASD 86 70 85 71 / 10 10 20 20 MSY 86 73 84 74 / 10 0 10 20 GPT 83 71 84 70 / 10 10 20 20 PQL 87 70 87 71 / 20 10 20 20 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for LAZ058-060-066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday for LAZ058-060-066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.GM...None.MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MSZ086>088. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday for MSZ086>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
