MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 12:04 AM CST ...New AVIATION...850
FXUS64 KMOB 060604
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1204 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed over the area. Some
isolated showers and instances of MVFR visbys will also continue
along and south of I-10. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will continue into the morning and afternoon especially across the
western Florida panhandle. MVFR to IFR ceilings will also continue
throughout the day. Winds will remain southeasterly throughout the
period. BB/03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
MVFR to VFR conditions will persist till roughly midnight when
MVFR to some instances of IFR ceilings across the area. IFR to
MVFR ceilings continue through the morning into the afternoon
tomorrow as isolated to scattered showers and storms develop
mostly along and south of interstate 10. Winds will remain light
out of the east-southeast. BB/03
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Upper ridging across the area today will shift eastward through
the period as a shortwave ejects northeast across the plains into
the midwest. An associated frontal boundary will stall near the
Mississippi River tonight and wash out as the upper support moves
well away from the boundary. Weak isentropic lift over the area
will continue to promote isolated showers mainly along the I-65
corridor through this evening. A greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday as deep tropical moisture
moves into eastern parts of the area with precip water values over
2 inches. This increased moisture combined with a weak shortwave
will lead to scattered to locally numerous showers and storms. The
greatest coverage will be along east of I-65 where the deeper
moisture will be located. Rain coverage will decrease Wednesday
night as the shortwave moves away.
Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the lower
80s and lows in the mid 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast.
A persistent southeast flow along with large tide cycles will again
cause areas along the western side of Mobile Bay to near Coastal
Flood Advisory criteria around high tide tonight near midnight.
Decided to not issue an advisory as forecasted heights are slightly
lower tonight along with being a very short duration event. A high
risk of rip currents will continue through the period. /13
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
A highly uncertain forecast for the extended period as we monitor
the development, progression, and eventual demise of Tropical
Storm Rafael. To start, our region will be located in between an
upper ridge located over the western Atlantic and a longwave
trough over the western US. This will allow for southwesterly flow
aloft to be in place. Embedded shortwaves will also continue
moving along the western periphery of the upper ridge, allowing
for deep, tropical moisture to continue advecting northward. PWAT
values on Thursday look to range from 1.6 inches over our western
zones to as high as 2.1 inches over our eastern zones. This will
allow for another round of scattered showers and storms,
especially over the eastern half of the region (lingering
subsidence should keep rain chances lower over the western half).
At this time, not expecting any severe weather with this activity
due to a lack of instability and limited deep layer shear.
Uncertainty arises by Friday and into the weekend. Tropical Storm
Rafael is expected to intensify into a hurricane within the next
24 to 36 hours as it approaches and moves over western Cuba. After
emerging into the Gulf by Wednesday night, the intensity should
remain rather steady, although cannot rule out a bit more
intensification as it moves over the warm Gulf loop current and
shear over the southern Gulf remains rather weak. By the Friday to
Sunday timeframe, the system should be located somewhere over the
central to northern Gulf. By this point, Rafael will have to
contend with an extremely hostile environment, with very strong
vertical wind shear (50+ knots), cooler SSTs, and a dry mid to
upper-level atmosphere. What guidance suggests is that the shear
will cause the mid/upper-level circulation to decouple from the
low level circulation. The mid/upper level circulation will be
pulled quickly to the northeast (following the upper level flow)
whereas the weakening low level circulation will follow the low
level flow off to the west. Additionally, the dry air and cooler
SSTs will help to erode away the deeper convection, and it is
entirely possible that whatever is left of Rafael's low level
circulation prior to reaching the northern Gulf Coast (if it even
makes it this far north) could simply be a swirl of clouds and
light rain. By Sunday, the low level circulation should begin to
merge with an approaching frontal boundary. Due to the large
amounts of uncertainty, PoPs from Friday through Sunday are
sitting at a very uncertain 20-40 percent. It is possible that we
could remain rather dry for periods within this timeframe, and it
is equally possible that we could have a few rounds of heavy rain.
At this point, we will just have to keep monitoring trends over
the next few days and adjust PoPs accordingly. Residents and
visitors along the northern Gulf Coast should continue monitoring
the forecast over the coming days. By the start of the week, dry
air moves back into the region after the front moves through,
allowing for rain chances to decrease as we get into Monday and
Tuesday.
Temperatures continue to remain well above average for this time of
year. Highs will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows through
Friday night will only dip into the mid 60s inland and low 70s along
the coast. Lows do look to decrease a bit as we get to Sunday and
Monday nights, likely due to the potential for drier air to advect
in. Lows look to be in the mid 50s inland to low 60s along the
coast. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through the week
and into the weekend. We will also have to monitor the potential for
High Surf Advisory conditions Thursday through Saturday for surf
heights around 5 to 8 feet. /96
MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
A light to moderate easterly to east northeasterly flow follows
for Wednesday, becoming moderate to occasionally strong Thursday
through Friday. Seas will also begin to increase Thursday into
Friday, gradually diminishing into the weekend. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 69 82 70 82 70 82 70 81 / 10 30 20 30 20 30 20 20
Pensacola 71 79 72 81 72 79 72 80 / 40 50 40 50 30 20 20 20
Destin 71 81 72 81 72 81 72 80 / 50 60 50 50 30 20 20 20
Evergreen 65 82 67 81 68 82 68 81 / 30 50 40 50 30 40 20 30
Waynesboro 66 83 66 81 67 81 67 80 / 10 20 20 20 20 40 40 30
Camden 63 81 65 80 66 80 67 78 / 10 30 30 40 30 40 30 30
Crestview 66 83 68 82 70 82 68 82 / 50 60 50 50 30 30 20 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 12:04 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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