CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 6:30 PM EST889
FXUS61 KCLE 062330
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
630 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Thursday and bring a quiet weather pattern through Saturday. A
low pressure system and cold front will bring the next round of
wet weather by Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...
Skies have primarily cleared out this evening, allowing for
temperatures to already cool a bit faster than previously
forecast, however the overall low for tonight remains in the
upper 40s to low 50s. In addition, dew point temperatures
previously forecast were much higher than current observations,
so adjusted these to decrease into the low to mid 50s overnight
tonight. As a result in the drier conditions, any patchy fog
that develops will be very isolated with the potential for low
stratus still high. Aside from those minor adjustments, there
were no other changes needed with this update.
Previous Discussion...
A cold front has been slowly moving across the area today and is
almost through the CWA. As of 3 pm, the surface wind
observations indicate the rather ill- defined front is near
Meadville, PA down to near Mount Vernon, OH. It will continue to
slowly track eastward as we head into the early evening. There
are a few scattered light showers and pockets of drizzle/mist
near that frontal boundary across NEOH and NWPA. We kept some
slight chance POPs through about 6 pm.
Cloudy skies will hold on for most of NEOH and NWPA for the
rest of the afternoon into tonight. Some partial clearing or
breaks in the cloud cover have made its way into NWOH and areas
west of I-71 this afternoon. The edge of the cloud canopy will
try to make it a little further east this evening but probably
not have much progress. Damp ground conditions and a weak
surface trough moving through the eastern Great Lakes overnight
will help aid in the redevelopment of low stratus cloud cover
after midnight through mid morning tomorrow. There could be a
little patchy fog as well late tonight and early tomorrow
morning.
High pressure over the Midwest will build across the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes region on Thursday. After a overcast start to
our Thursday morning, we will see plenty of sunshine during the
afternoon for the entire area with seasonable temperatures. High
temps are expected to be in the mid 50s to 60 degrees with a
light northwest or northerly wind around 5 to 8 mph. Clear skies
and light winds Thursday night will help temperatures drop into
the middle and upper 30s away from the lakeshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We'll start the short term forecast period Friday with a cold front
grazing Lake Erie and perhaps Northwest PA behind low pressure over
Quebec. This should be a rain-free feature and the front itself
likely won't push through much or any of the area before exiting
east. However, somewhat breezy conditions are likely on Friday. High
pressure then glides across the Great Lakes Friday night and
Saturday, bringing quiet and calm weather. Low pressure will lift
out of the Plains and towards the Upper Midwest Saturday night.
Moist isentropic lift ahead of the low's warm front will support
rain potential spreading in from the west late Saturday night.
Highs on Friday will generally be on either side of 60. Lows Friday
night will generally be in the 30s inland and 40s close to the lake.
Temperatures trend ever-so-slightly cooler for Saturday, generally
staying in the mid to upper 50s but with low 60s possible towards
Findlay and Marion. Lows Saturday night will generally stay in the
40s as clouds and winds increase, with some 30s possible in PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will drift east through the Great Lakes through Sunday
night, with a cold front expected to cross late Sunday or Sunday
night. Shower potential will continue through Sunday night ahead of
the cold front. There is not much of an airmass change behind the
cold front early next week, so while there may be a few lake effect
rain showers on Monday am not expecting a robust lake response. We
should then be dry through at least early Wednesday as high pressure
works across the region. Low pressure begins taking shape yet again
towards the central U.S. next Wednesday, though guidance disagrees
considerably at this distance on the timing, track, and strength of
the low. Have some low/generic 30-40% rain chances spreading in on
Wednesday, though a slower trend for the onset of that rain
potential is possible as the system comes into better view.
Temperatures will generally be milder than average through the long
range forecast period, fluctuating from solidly above average on
Sunday ahead of the cold front to near or just slightly above
average for Monday and Tuesday behind the front. A warming trend is
expected midweek in warm air advection ahead of the next system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread VFR conditions this evening will gradually give way
to MVFR ceilings overnight as a trough moves east and allows low
stratus to again develop. Generally speaking, all terminals
should lower to MVFR ceilings between 06-09Z tonight, which will
persist into Thursday morning. These ceilings will gradually
rebound from west to east as high pressure builds over the area
and allows skies to clear out. General timing for this to occur
at KTOL and KFDY will be around 12-13Z. In addition, as this
trough pushes east, a few scattered light rain showers may
impact far NE OH/NW PA between 6-12Z. Confidence in these
showers is pretty low and have opted to leave it out of the KERI
TAF at this point.
Winds tonight will be light from the northwest, gradually
increasing to 5-10 knots from the north Thursday morning. By the
end of this TAF period and the start of the next (00Z Friday)
winds will again become light and variable.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers and low ceilings
Sunday through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
A push of 10-15 knot northwest to north winds is expected later this
evening through Thursday morning in cold air advection behind a cold
front. This will build some 1-3 footers in the nearshore waters,
especially east of The Islands. Winds lull to near or less than 10
knots the rest of Thursday through Thursday evening. A cold front
will pass over northern and eastern Lake Erie on Friday. A period of
westerly 15-25 knot winds is likely late Thursday night through
Friday over central and eastern portions of the lake, with 12-18
knots over the western half. The current forecast suggests we'll
need a Small Craft Advisory late Thursday night through a good
portion of Friday for nearshore forecast zones from near Cleveland
points east. High pressure slides through Friday night into
Saturday, allowing winds to subside to 15 knots or less. Southerly
winds will increase into Sunday ahead of the next cold front.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 6:30 PM EST---------------
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