IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 2:56 PM EST347
FXUS63 KIND 061956
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
256 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog expected tonight, mainly over SE and N portions of
Central Indiana
- Above normal temperatures to continue through the forecast period
- Rain and a few thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday, with
additional rain chances mid week next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
Much quieter weather has settled in over central Indiana this
afternoon, as weak CAA and AVA in the back side of the decaying
trough has increased surface pressure and subsidence. Initially this
has lead to breaks in the stratus layer, with a broken strato-cu
deck now encompassing most of central Indiana. The one caveat is far
SE central Indiana where a weak low level boundary remains, as seen
on satelitte imagery. In this area, isolated showers may develop
this afternoon as a modest instability gradient develops. Any
rainfall should be minimal/isolated, but cannot be ruled out
nonetheless.
Overnight, the main forecast problem will be the potential
development of ground fog. This will work two-fold for central
Indiana. In the far SE, dew points are not expected to fall quickly
with the boundary just to the south. This boundary is also likely to
limit surface winds as a nocturnal inversion sets up. This
combination typically leads to patchy dense fog, especially over
river valleys. The other method of fog formation could occur over
northern portions of central Indiana, as model soundings have shown a
continuing towards an inversion reestablishing tonight underneath
clearing skies. A steady northerly wind at 5-10mph could limit
decoupling of the boundary layer and largely prevent any fog
concerns, but areas where winds fall below 5mph are expected to have
patchy fog.
Tomorrow, much of the same weather is expected in central Indiana,
just with slightly cooler temperatures as central Indiana's wind
flow becomes largely out of the N/NW overnight, including marginal
cold air advection. Any remaining stratus from overnight subsidence
inversions will likely mix-out by the late morning, with scattered
to isolated strato-cu remaining in the afternoon. This increased
sunshine may lead to slightly warmer than forecasted temperatures,
but given climatology of early November and consistent N/NW flow,
temperatures have been capped in the mid 60s as of this issuance.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
A fairly progressive pattern is expected is expected throughout the
period.
Broad surface high pressure will keep the area dry into the very
early portion of the weekend. An upper level low currently in the
process of cutting off over the Southwest will move quickly
northeast through the Great Lakes late in the week and over the
weekend, bringing first a warm front, followed by a narrow warm
sector and cold front through the area late Saturday into Sunday -
this will produce a period of widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms, primarily Saturday night into early Sunday, though
timing differences will necessitate chances lingering into Sunday
evening.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will reassert control thereafter,
with continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions early
next work week.
Guidance then suggests, though differs significantly in timing and
strength, that a much larger upper trough and stronger surface low
will develop across the northern CONUS and move into the central
Canadian provinces, with steady eastward progress of the upper
trough pushing a stronger cold front through the area mid week next
week.
Despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures are likely to remain
above normal throughout the forecast period, though depending upon
the strength of the cold front next week, there is at least some
chance of a brief drop to near or slightly below normal mid-month.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1244 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
Impacts:
- Variable MVFR through 20Z
- VFR conditions return mid afternoon
- Patchy fog possible again late tonight KBMG
Discussion:
Stratocu will be slow to mix out with VFR ceilings not likely to
return until mid afternoon. Ceilings should further scatter and lift
through this evening as winds veer from westerly to N/NW as the high
settles over the Great Lakes. Additionally, a thicker mid level
cloud deck will overspread all sites except KLAF tonight as the
frontal boundary stalls to our south. Westerly winds today will veer
to northerly tonight.
Lingering moisture within the near surface layer will likely lead to
pockets of fog and perhaps lower ceilings developing again tonight.
Best chance for fog development will likely be at KBMG where winds
are expected to approach calm. KLAF may also develop patchy fog if
clearing does occur tonight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 2:56 PM EST---------------
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