CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 10:02 PM EST773
FXUS61 KCLE 060302
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeastward from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes region tonight. The corresponding cold front
will move across the area late tonight into Wednesday morning and
clear the area by mid-day. High pressure builds into the Great Lakes
Thursday and remain over the region through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...
Increased PoPs in NW Ohio over the next 2 to 3 hours since
showers are clipping that area a little faster. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track for overnight.
6:30 PM Update...
The forecast remains on track for the evening. The cold front
currently stretches from the Chicago area to Memphis, TN and
will slowly progress into the region late this evening into
tonight. Timing of the associated band of showers still looks on
track, with showers reaching NW Ohio between 03 and 05Z, the
I-71 and I-77 corridors between 07 and 09Z, and the OH/PA line
between 09 and 11Z. Otherwise, southerly flow will maintain
very mild conditions this evening and overnight.
Original Discussion...
Warm air advection still has a hold on the region through this
evening. Temperatures will still be well above average and with
the majority of the region being clear or under a scattered
cumulus deck. Temperatures will start coming down from a warm
day and remain fairly mild through the evening into early
Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will start to increase from west
to east this evening as the cold front approaches. Winds will
subside for a short period this evening, though still be 15-20
mph with gusts to 25 mph, before picking up again with the front
and gusting to around 35 mph.
The aforementioned cold front approaches the CWA this late tonight
with a band of precipitation out ahead that will be in the west
counties by this evening. The system as a whole has trended slower
recently which won't bring higher PoPs past the I-71 corridor until
after 2 AM. There is high confidence that all locations will see
precipitation at some point throughout the night with the southern
portion of the CWA having a higher QPF of less than half an inch and
further north will see less than a quarter of an inch. Precipitation
will linger into the day on Wednesday in the far southeastern
counties before clearing out in the afternoon.
The cold front will push through the area mid-day on Wednesday with
high pressure building in behind. The air mass will still be fairly
warm and temperatures will remain above the average in the mid to
high 60s for Wednesday. Clouds will clear out from west to east
throughout the day and winds will become light and west to
northwesterly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A flat and elongated high pressure system will build over the
Midwest and Great Lakes region on Thursday. Skies will start out
mostly cloudy early Thursday morning but becoming partly cloudy to
mostly clear by this afternoon. High temperatures will range from
the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday. High pressure will stay over
the Great Lakes region through Friday night with quiet and fair
weather conditions. High temperatures will again be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern will return for later in the weekend.
An upper level trough will eject out from the Panhandle of Texas and
Oklahoma into the Central Plains on Saturday. High pressure over
southern Ontario will bring one more nice day of weather on Saturday
across the Great Lakes region. Clouds will be on the increase late
in the day on Saturday ahead of the next weather system. A warm
front will lift northward across the area Saturday night. A cold
front will advance from the west into the area late Sunday. Rain
showers will become likely late Saturday night through Sunday night.
A few isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out on Sunday ahead of
the cold frontal passage. A weak high pressure system will move in
early next week. Temperatures will remain above average over the
weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Not much has changed with the Aviation forecast tonight and
Wednesday. The band of showers associated with the cold front
are currently moving through Illinois, Indiana, and Lower
Michigan. VFR will prevail until these showers reach the TAF
sites, and timing looks to be 03 to 05Z for KTOL and KFDY,
06-08Z for KMFD and KCLE, 08-10Z for KCAK and KYNG, and 10-12Z
for KERI. This timing is slightly slower compared to previous
thinking. VFR may continue for an hour or two after the onset of
showers, but expect a fairly rapid drop to MVFR. The showers
will end from west to east Wednesday morning into early
afternoon, with MVFR continuing for much of north central and
NE Ohio into NW PA. Some IFR is possible late Wednesday morning
into the afternoon in NE Ohio and NW PA affecting KCAK, KYNG,
and KERI. Gradual clearing to VFR will occur from west to east
late Wednesday afternoon and evening, so brought some VFR into
KMFD and KCLE.
In terms of winds, expect S winds to decrease the next few hours
but then pick up ahead of the cold front again tonight. S winds
will increase to 15-25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots beginning
around 02Z in NW Ohio then spread east through the night. The
strongest winds will be west of I-71. Winds will decrease behind
the cold front Wednesday morning while turning WSW at 5-10
knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings possible Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Non-VFR likely with rain
Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure with a trailing cold front will be moving through the
Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday. Southerly to
southwesterly winds 15-25 knots will continue over the lake through
tonight. The ongoing Small Craft Advisory mainly for the strong,
gusty winds will continue through 12z Wednesday morning. The cold
front will move across the lake from west to east Wednesday morning.
Winds will become westerly 10-15 knots behind the front Wednesday
into Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure will build east
over the Great Lakes Wednesday night through Saturday. Winds 5-10
knots will favor a northerly component Wednesday night through
Friday evening. Winds will become more northeasterly by late Friday
night into Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Near-record warm high temperatures are forecast today, Tuesday,
November 5th. Here are the current records for that date:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
11-05 76(2022) 76(2015) 77(2022) 78(2022) 79(2022) 78(2022)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kennedy
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Kennedy/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Griffin
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 10:02 PM EST---------------
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