IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 6:14 AM EST748
FXUS63 KIWX 031114
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
614 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will continue to climb through Tuesday with highs
reaching into the 70s and lows only around 60.
- Periods of rain are expected with the best chances west of
I-69 Monday morning and again late Tuesday.
- Wednesday through Friday will be dry with above normal
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
Large-scale pattern amplification is now well underway across NOAM
as strong Pacific jet carves a deep trough over the Rockies with
corresponding high amplitude ridge developing over eastern NOAM.
Tightening baroclinic zone is supporting precip from TX to WI and
expect very little eastward movement over the next 48 hours given
highly meridional flow aloft largely parallel to the frontal
boundary. Initial warm front and low level theta-e surge is just now
entering IL and will not move across our CWA until late afternoon.
Precip chances with this initial WAA still appear marginal as nose
of stronger LLJ (50+ kts) and associated moisture convergence remain
just to our west. There is also some residual low level dry air to
overcome and overall instability aloft is neutral at best. Will
maintain just chance PoP's with very light QPF in our NW half during
the evening hours. Most locations will likely struggle to get
measurable precip but sprinkles are possible over our central zones.
Much of the overnight period will then remain dry given best
isentropic ascent is focused just to our north and west. WAA will
push afternoon highs well into the 60s though with lows tonight
roughly 20 degrees warmer than current values as temps hold steady
or even rise overnight with passing warm front.
Better rain chances arrive early Mon (for areas west of I-69
anyway). Models continue to be in good agreement on a modest
embedded shortwave lifting into the western Great Lakes that will
force better ascent slightly further east. Best chances appear to be
roughly 12-18Z Mon AM in our far W/NW counties where a quick quarter-
inch and an isolated rumble of thunder are possible given better
midlevel support for ascent amid steady moisture advection/
decreasing stability. Eastern zones will likely remain dry
though. This activity lifts north during the afternoon with a
lull in precip anticipated everywhere as shortwave lifts north
and focus for precip returns to primary trough/surface front
still well upstream. Much of the area will likely remain dry
from Mon afternoon through Tue morning and have tried to massage
PoP's to reflect that.
As the core of the jet energy rounds the base of the trough on Mon
it will lift north Mon night and force a rapid lifting and weakening
of the primary longwave trough. What was a large/deep trough
collapses almost entirely by late Tue as the surface frontal zone
sweeps eastward and decays. Sufficient low level moisture and
convergence exits to support some light showers passing through the
area late Tue but absent better instability than currently
indicated, it will be tough to squeeze out much more than a tenth or
so for most locations.
The biggest story for this time period may end up being the warm
temps. Records for both max temps and warm low temps will be in
jeopardy Mon and Tue, especially at KFWA with less rain/clouds and a
later frontal passage. Highs will be in the 70s with lows only
around 60F (roughly 25 degrees above normal).
Wed-Fri period still appears dry as midlevel ridge/subsidence
gradually rebuild over the Great Lakes. Temps will be cooler but
still on the warm side for early Nov. Next upper low ejects out of
the southwest next weekend. NBM PoP's begin Sat but bulk of latest
deterministic guidance hold off precip until Sun (the more
likely scenario).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
Winds will become increasingly breezy throughout the morning. By
the afternoon, southeast winds will be sustained around 15 kts
with gusts up to 25 kts possible. VFR ceilings between 5 to 10
kft will persist throughout the TAF forecast period. Winds will
remain elevated this evening and overnight around 10 kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 6:14 AM EST---------------
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