ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 1:12 PM EST688
FXUS61 KILN 041812
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
112 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect warmer temperatures and a few showers today through
Tuesday in the strong southerly flow between high pressure to
the east and a cold front to the west. Showers will be
widespread Tuesday night into Wednesday when the front is
forecast to push through. The threat for showers will persist on
Thursday as the front stalls to the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some showers will be possible across primarily northwestern
portions of the forecast area north and west of Dayton.
Southerly flow will allow for temperatures to climb into the 70s
areawide today. Winds will gust around 25 to 30 mph at times
today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Models indicate a low chance of showers tonight across northwest
counties, with dry weather elsewhere. Winds remaining gusty
under a tightening gradient and strengthening low level jet will
result in a well-mixed atmosphere that will keep low
temperatures up around 60, with record high mins possible.
Mainly dry weather is likely to persist early Tuesday. Later on
Tuesday afternoon, showers will move in from the west as the
front grows closer.
Main concern appears to be strong wind gusts that could reach 40
mph on Tuesday as the low level jet mixes down. Will mention
potential gusts in the HWO.
Warm temperatures will continue to be observed, with highs in
the mid 70s to around 80. These highs could reach records at
multiple locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers will spread across the area ahead of a cold front that will
become increasingly zonally oriented as it tracks in the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As upper support moves away, coverage
of showers will be waning on Wednesday as the axis of precipitation
slides southeast. There is some uncertainty regarding how quickly
the front and thus precipitation move out of the area. While slower
solutions that indicate this may not happen until later Wednesday
night cannot be discounted, it seems more likely that the front will
move south of the forecast area late Wednesday or perhaps early
Wednesday evening.
The front will linger just south of the area Wednesday night and
Thursday, and as a weak wave tracks along it, there may be a slight
uptick in showers in far southern counties. High pressure north of
the region will then exert itself further south across the entire
forecast area for the rest of the week while a sharpening mid level
ridge translates through the region resulting in dry conditions.
Upper low will lift out of the Plains into the Great Lakes over the
weekend with some spread in solutions on latitudinal placement as
well as rate of weakening during this time frame. But there is
reasonable agreement in timing which results in little difference in
terms of a broad scale look at sensible weather. Thus relatively
good confidence for that far out in the forecast that showers will
spread across the region Saturday night and Sunday.
Rather mild temperatures to start the period will cool down after
the front goes through, although still remain above normal. After
that change in airmass, there is not a lot of variation in
temperatures from day to day for the latter part of the week into
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Gusty winds will be in place this afternoon. Wind gusts will
decrease this evening as the inversion sets up. Kept some lower
end wind gusts in some of the TAFs however to account for the
potential for more isolated gusts to occur.
During the overnight hours and into the daytime morning hours
on Tuesday there will be LLWS. Went with 45 to 50 knots for the
LLWS, however 55 knots cannot be ruled out. There are some
indications of MVFR cigs developing overnight and into the
morning hours, however it looks like the models might be
over saturating the low levels with the strong low level flow
and therefore kept VFR conditions through the TAF period.
During the day on Tuesday wind gusts will start to increase and
gust around or in excess of 30 knots by the end of the TAF
period. Expect most of the precipitation to hold off until the
end of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Wind gusts around 30 knots or more will be possible
at all sites Tuesday afternoon. MVFR CIGs and VSBYs are possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR CIGs may persist into
Wednesday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 1:12 PM EST---------------
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