IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 1:04 AM EDT328
FXUS63 KIWX 030504
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
104 AM EDT Sun Nov 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a slowly increasing chance of rain late Sunday
through Tuesday night.
- Rain totals will be greatest near the lake, with notably less
toward Lima, OH and Portland, IN.
- High temperatures in the 70s Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
High pressure centered over southeast Michigan this afternoon is
providing a comfortably crisp fall afternoon. As high pressure
gradually slides east ridging builds aloft, lows tonight will be at
least a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, limiting the overall
frost coverage compared to Saturday morning. Wind near 5 knots
overnight will also limit the risk of patchy fog.
In the days ahead, there is a slowly increasing chance of rain
showers along with a return of high temperatures in the 70s.
Through midweek, the greatest rain totals will be near Lake
Michigan, while rain totals will undoubtedly be lower toward
Lima, OH and Portland, IN.
A ridge over the Southeast US works to keep our forecast area
primarily dry Sunday against a strong baroclinic zone along the
Mississippi River valley, which is the focus for repeated
rounds of rain. A couple of showers may sneak in late Sunday
afternoon near the lake. Through time, a deep trough over the
Four Corners is nudged east in response to a landfalling low
over British Columbia. Showers Monday will favor those in far
southwest MI and far northern Indiana, but late in the day Fort
Wayne and adjacent communities see a 20-30% chance of rain.
Later Tuesday and Tuesday night, the trough clears Indiana bringing
one more opportunity for rain until the end of the week. High
temperatures peak in the low-to-mid 70s Monday and Tuesday,
followed by a modest cool down near 60.
Late this week, a trough is forecast to eject from the central
Rockies brining a chance of much-welcome rain to the weekend. 500-mb
clusters indicate significant difference in the timing and depth
of the trough such that forecast confidence at this distance is
low.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Nov 3 2024
VFR ceilings and southeast winds 5 to 10 kts will prevail
overnight. Around sunrise, winds should start to increase.
Throughout the afternoon, southeast winds will be sustained
around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Ceilings will
remain VFR throughout the TAF forecast period but ceilings will
gradually ebcome lower throughout the day, dropping from where
they are now at 25 kft down to 5 to 10 kft by this evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 1:04 AM EDT---------------
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