ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 3:21 AM EST722
FXUS61 KILN 030821
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
321 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away,
southerly flow will become established and increase for the
early part of the week. This will allow for temperatures to
warm well above normal. Showers will start to spread into the
area late Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will move through
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Region will remain under the influence of high pressure heading
up the St Lawrence Valley. High clouds spilling over a upper
level ridge axis will be thin for the first part of the day. But
as that axis translates east and a short wave rides up the back
side of ridge, clouds will increase and thicken later. Highs
will get into the upper 60s to lower 70s for the most part.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As short wave clips the far northwest part of the forecast area,
cannot rule out a few high-based showers this evening. Otherwise,
it will be mainly cloudy through the night. Lows will be in the
50s. It looks like clouds might become a little less extensive
heading into Monday. But there will be southerly flow at the
surface and aloft allowing for further warming with most of the
region rising into the mid 70s. Winds may become a little gusty
at that point as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front trailing Great Lakes low pressure will be the focus for
showers during the early part of the long term. A few showers could
impact far northwest locations Monday night to Tuesday morning. For
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, widespread showers are
expected with cold frontal passage, along with 30 knot wind gusts.
As front slows down and moisture persists, showers may linger
Wednesday and Thursday, especially over southeastern locations. Dry
weather is likely for Friday under high pressure. Showers may return
Saturday as lift and moisture increase in advance of the next low
pressure.
Temperatures will stay above normal even after cold frontal passage.
Highs on Tuesday are forecast to reach the mid 70s to around 80.
Highs for the rest of the period will mainly be in the mid and upper
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will continue. Highs clouds will spread across the region.
Expect some cumulus to move in after 22Z with bases around 5kft.
Easterly winds 10 kt or less will gradually veer to the
southeast.
OUTLOOK...Wind gusts around 25 kts are possible Monday. Wind
gusts at or above 30 kts are likely on Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR
ceilings may persist into Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 3:21 AM EST---------------
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