BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 2:40 AM EDT000
FXUS61 KBOX 310640
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
240 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Near record high temperatures are expected today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Temperatures remain unseasonably warm and
quite breezy on Friday with near record high temperatures well into
the 70s. High temperatures fall back to more seasonable levels for
the weekend with continued dry conditions. A gradual warming trend
is expected early next week with well above normal temperatures by
the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Increasing dewpoints this morning on moist southerly flow have led
to patchy dense fog across southern New England but coverage is not
expected to become widespread. Any lingering fog will mix out
shortly after sunrise. Those elevated dewpoints have also limited
our cooling overnight for a very mild start to the day, already in
the low 60s for many. This will set southern New England up for near
record warmth this afternoon. At the synoptic scale a mid level
ridge axis shifts east of the region directing warm SW flow with 925
mb temps reaching as warm as 18C. This, coupled with some downslope
component into the CT River and Merrimack valleys will lead to high
temps in the upper 70s and low 80s. The exception is along the
immediate south coast where onshore flow limits temps to the upper
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Tonight a surface low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into
northern New England dragging a surface cold front lacking much
moisture toward southern New England. At the mid levels flow becomes
more zonal. The result will for most will be some increased
cloudcover ahead of the front but most won't see any rain. The more
notable change will be an increase in winds on Friday as mid level
cold advection leads to a better mixed boundary layer in sync with a
35-45 kt 925mb jet overhead. Model soundings indicate we'll mix down
gusts anywhere from 25 to 35 mph. This will of course only
exacerbate any ongoing wildfire concerns. See the fire weather
section below for more.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday:
Cooler and more seasonable temps return for the weekend with a
cooler airmass in place behind Fridays cold front. Temperatures
over the weekend will struggle to top 60F, likely staying in the low
to mid-50s. Surface high pressure will allow the pressure gradient
to relax and winds to become light over the weekend. Good
radiational cooling conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday
night, with lows dropping into the 20s and 30s.
Monday - Wednesday:
Guidance remains in good agreement to start the work week, showing a
quick-moving upper-level ridge building in. This will allow temps to
slowly rebound, but a back door cold front may stall over the region
Monday and Tuesday, making the temperatures forecast quite uncertain
at this time. A warm front should move through late Tuesday into
Wednesday, kicking out the back door front and allowing temps to
rise well above normal into the 70s again. The warm front will
likely not have enough upper-level support to bring any substantial
rainfall to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
This morning: Moderate confidence.
VFR except for some MVFR-IFR conditions in low clouds across
parts of the Cape and Islands. However...there are some signs
that these low clouds could scour out after midnight in those
locations too. SSW winds around 5-10 kt.
Today and tonight: High confidence.
VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts.
Friday: High confidence.
VFR. Increasingly gusty SW winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today: Seas decrease to 2-3 ft with continued SW winds at 15-20
kt. A few gusts just below 20 kt also possible.
Tonight: Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to return
with seas up to 7 ft in the outer waters possible. Winds
continue to be from the SW but increase to 25 kt with gusts up
to 30 kt.
Friday: Small Craft Advisory conditions persist with seas 4-7 ft
and wind gusts 25-30 kts.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in
continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. The
biggest concern continues to be Friday when westerly winds may gust
to between 25 and 35 mph. This, as relative humidities drop to
between 35 and 40 percent away from the south coast. We will
continue to coordinate Fire Weather products with our state partners.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st
BOS: 81F (1946)
ORH: 79F (1946)
PVD: 83F (1946)
BDL: 82F (1946)
Maximum Record High Temperatures: November 1st
BOS: 77F (1974)
ORH: 73F (2003)
PVD: 78F (1974)
BDL: 81F (1974)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Friday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...BW/KP
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
FIRE WEATHER...BW/KP
CLIMATE...Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 2:40 AM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
