LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:29 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...419
FXUS64 KLIX 021129
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
A ridge axis extending across the Southeastern CONUS will expand
westward across the forecast area today. In response to this
increased mid and upper level ridging and associated subsidence,
the atmosphere aloft will begin to dry and warm. The end result
will be decreased instability as mid-level lapse rates fall to
around 5.0C/km and PWATS decrease to around 1.25 inches by this
afternoon. Skies will remain partly cloudy as some lingering low
level moisture remains in place, but rainfall is not forecast to
occur through Monday night. Temperatures will also remain warmer
than average as the ridge intensifies over the area, and have not
varied from the deterministic NBM output as forecast temperature
spread is less than 2 degrees through the short term period. This
will keep highs in the low to mid 80s, or just below record
levels, and lows well above average in the 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
The best chance for rain will take place on Tuesday as a weakening
frontal boundary slips into the western third of the CWA and then
dissipates. This front will form over Texas as a shortwave trough
axis slips through the Southern Plains, but the trough is expected
to become highly sheared and eventually merge into a broader
northern stream flow regime as it pulls into the Midwest on
Tuesday. As the trough weakens, the associated frontal boundary
will rapidly diminish in intensity through the day on Tuesday, and
fully expect to see the front fully dissipated by Tuesday night.
Still, some moisture convergence along the weakening boundary will
tap into moderately high PWATS of around 1.5 inches to produce
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across the
western third of the CWA on Tuesday. Rain chances will be
significantly lower across the remainder of the CWA due to lower
PWATS, continued influence from the upper level ridge over the
Southeast, and a lack of low level boundaries that could overcome
a mid-level capping inversion. Temperatures will be little changed
as the front dissipates with readings remaining well above normal
for early November.
From Wednesday through Friday, forecast uncertainty increased
dramatically due to differing solutions on the evolution of a
trough axis across the Southwestern CONUS. Based on a cluster
analysis review of the GFS and ECWMF based ensemble forecasts, a
decision was made to stick with the ECMWF solution in the extended
period. This solution keeps the ridge axis firmly in place through
the end of next week with continued above normal temperatures and
low rain chances. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the mid
80s over the period and lows will generally remain in the 60s.
These values are a good 10 to 15 degrees above average for this
time of year. A strong mid-level capping inversion will remain in
place, so any rain that occurs will be very isolated and will be
in the form of low topped showers.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
High soil moisture content and light winds have allowed for IFR
stratus to develop at BTR this morning. This stratus is extending
along the Mississippi River and will impact REG, APS, and MSY
between 12z and 14z with periods of IFR stratus. After 15z,
increased thermal mixing will allow the stratus deck to lift and
scatter out resulting in a return to VFR conditions at all of the
terminals. However, boundary layer conditions will remain
favorable for additional low stratus and even fog development
tonight at several terminals. IFR and lower conditions are
expected to redevelop between 08z and 10z at ASD, BTR, MCB, and
HDC as continued high soil moisture content and a developing
inversion support fog and stratus formation. At MSY and NEW,
stronger boundary layer winds will keep the inversion weaker and
ceilings of 1500 to 2000 feet are expected to form after 10z.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected for most of the terminals
through the overnight hours.Since the rain has almost completely
cleared out, removed mentions of precip for this cycle. As the
next day continues, there should be some improvement to both
ceilings and visibility starting later this morning, bringing the
terminals all up to VFR again.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
A persistent easterly flow regime will be in place across the
coastal waters through the middle of next week. This flow pattern
is related to a broad area of high pressure centered to the north
of the area and an area of low pressure that is in place across
the southern Gulf. The strength of these features will vary
through the week, but the main impact will be winds remaining in
excess of 15 knots through the period. In fact, small craft
advisory conditions are likely to occur as early as Sunday night
and persist through Monday night as the low pressure to the south
gains strength. This easterly flow will also allow for above
normal tides that will bring minor coastal flooding issues during
high tide to east facing shores starting Sunday night and
continuing through the first half of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 62 83 67 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 82 67 84 71 / 0 0 10 10
ASD 82 66 82 70 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 81 70 83 74 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 81 68 80 71 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 83 66 81 70 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:29 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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