LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 3:04 AM EST710
FXUS63 KLMK 040804
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Near record warm lows this morning and highs this afternoon.
* Breezy and unusually warm Tuesday. Widespread rain with a cold
front late Tuesday into Wednesday.
* Above normal temperatures and intermittent rain chances for the
rest of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
The Ohio Valley will be between deep troughing over the central
Plains and ridging over the eastern CONUS as these features slowly
shift eastward in the short term period. This places central
Kentucky and southern Indiana under deep layer southwesterly flow.
WAA will continue to pump moisture into the region and keep
temperatures near record.
This morning, a 50-55kt LLJ is moving into the region from the west,
which is keeping winds breezy overnight. A mixed atmosphere, coupled
with scattered to broken skies, will limit cooling. Low temperatures
will be near or breaking record warm minimum temperatures of 64
(SDF), 62 (BWG), 63 (LEX), and 58 (FFT).
By mid morning, mixing will bring LLJ winds to the surface allowing
gusts up to 30mph. The region should remain dry today, given that
the best forcing is to the north and west of the region. Wouldn't
completely rule out an isolated light shower over southern Indiana
in the late afternoon, but confidence in this is low. High
temperatures this afternoon will be near or breaking records. Given
overachieving temperatures yesterday and strong WAA, leaning towards
a breaking record forecast at our climate sites.
In the overnight period, winds will remain breezy and skies
scattered to broken. This will again limit cooling, keeping low
temperatures in the low-mid 60s. There is another good chance at
breaking warm minimum temperatures at the climate sites. Warm low
records are 65 (BWG), 63 (FFT), 64 (SDF), and 63 (LEX) all set in
2017.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Unseasonable warmth will continue on Election Day in deep SSW flow
ahead of an approaching cold front. Trend continues to be slower
with the arrival of precip, which leaves a larger window for temps
to approach record highs. For now will roll with a 20-40 percent
chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon west of I-65, while
areas to the east remain dry until after sunset.
Cold front moves through Tuesday night, with anomalously high PWATs
to support widespread rain. Progressive nature of the precip shield
will limit amounts, and with recent rainfall deficits we can take
quite a bit of rain before runoff becomes an issue. Southwesterly
low-level jet cranking up to 40-45 kt could support some isolated
embedded thunder, but instability is nil and lapse rates are weak,
so there is little to no SVR threat. Total QPF will be 1 to 1.5
inches, mainly a soaking rain.
Rain chances could linger into Wednesday and even Thursday,
especially across south-central Kentucky as the front hangs up
nearly parallel to the persistent SW upper flow. At this point we'll
keep POPs in the 20-30% range as timing any upper impulses is tricky
at best. Above normal temps will continue, even though records won't
be approached beyond Tuesday.
By Friday another deep upper low starts to eject out of the Four
Corners, lifting from the Texas Panhandle Friday evening to
Wisconsin by Sunday. Isentropic lift ahead of that system will
support precip breaking out late Saturday into Sat night. Precip
chances peak at 60 percent Sat night into Sunday, but expect to bump
those numbers for one period or the other as confidence in the
timing increases. Temps remain solidly above normal, especially at
night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Summary: LLWS, gusty surface winds, VFR
Confidence: Medium-high for all elements
Warm air advection is set up over the region and will remain through
this TAF period. A LLJ moving into the region from the west has
introduced LLWS through 13Z at HNB, SDF, and BWG. This jet will
remain through the TAF period, allowing winds to remain elevated and
gusts up to 25-30kts in the afternoon. Early morning Tuesday, LLWS
will be continued from 6-12Z. Mid and high level broken clouds will
stream overhead through the TAF period, with SCT low level clouds in
the afternoon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
================== Near-Record Warmth This Week ==================
Monday 11/04/2024 Tuesday 11/05/2024
Max T Fcst/Record (Year) Max T Fcst/Warmest (Year)
Louisville: 80/80 (2003) 81/80 (1975)
Bowling Green: 81/80 (1956) 81/82 (1909)
Lexington: 79/78 (2015) 80/79 (1977)
Frankfort: 78/80 (1974) 80/79 (1987)
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRM
CLIMATE...RAS/SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 3:04 AM EST---------------
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